Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS AND ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED
HAIL...AND ARE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MICROBURSTS. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN SHOULD WEAKEN. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE AN MCS DEVELOPONG ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING NORTHERN ARKANSAS TOWARD MORNING. BASED ON THIS...WENT
WITH 20 POPS IN THE SOUTH AND 30 IN THE NORTH FOR THIS
EVENING...THEN DROPPED MENTION OF RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT WHILE CONTINUING 30 POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. IF THE MCS MAKES IT INTO THE NORTH...LOOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY AND INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST. UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS AND AREAS AFFECTED WILL PRECLUDE ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE MCS
WOULD MOSTLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT DO PLACE A LOT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH 30 POPS IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN
ELSEWHERE THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON WENT WITH 30 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
WHERE EFFECTS OF ANY MCS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DECREASING TO 20 POPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GOOD AS
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY BE DRIVING THE WEATHER AND MODELS
WILL NOT RESOLVE THEM WELL. SINCE GFS KEEPS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE
WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THAT...WILL GO WITH 20 POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER PERSISTENT
AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ANY
DISTURBANCE OR BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  89  67  88 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         70  93  70  92 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       66  87  65  86 /  30  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  90  71  90 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     72  92  71  92 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      68  90  68  90 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  86  65  86 /  30  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        70  92  68  88 /  30  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  91  71  91 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  90  68  89 /  20  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         69  90  68  89 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      72  90  71  90 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...58