Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AT
LOWER LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME DISRUPTED AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS HAS PERSISTED
THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROF DRAWS CLOSER. THUS WILL KEEP 70 PERCENT POPS GOING FOR
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
IN THE SOUTH. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
MESO BOUNDARIES CAN INTERACT. WILL NEED TO WATCH A FEW COUNTIES IN
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL LAST NIGHT AND
EARLIER TODAY FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IF MORE HEAVY RAINS CAN MOVE
INTO THOSE AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. RAIN SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING. BY MIDDAY...HAVE POPS
INTO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE IN MOST AREAS WITH CHANCE IN THE EAST THEN
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT LEFT OVER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM HEATING FROM DECREASING
CLOUDS CAN GET SOME CONVECTION GOING. THE UPPER TROF WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND DROPPED ALL MENTION OF RAIN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FIGURING THAT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE FROM LOSS OF HEATING. UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE A STRONG
UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXES WILL VARY DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST MAXES IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT WITH
THE COOLEST MAXES IN THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENTUALLY THE TROF WILL MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WHICH MAY ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AND
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF ALL THIS
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN BUT BASED ON MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL POPS BEGINNING MONDAY AND INCREASING BY MIDWEEK. DID ADJUST
POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH TO 30 PERCENT IN NORTH AND
WEST. DOES APPEAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WITH THIS PATTERN. TEMPS WILL STAY RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S AND MAXES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  78  63  85 /  70  50  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  83  64  87 /  70  40  10  10
HARRISON AR       60  79  63  85 /  70  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  82  64  87 /  70  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  81  64  87 /  70  40  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  82  64  88 /  70  50  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  83  64  87 /  70  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  78  63  85 /  70  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        62  78  64  85 /  70  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  82  65  87 /  70  50  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  81  64  88 /  70  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         63  80  64  86 /  70  50  10  10
STUTTGART AR      64  81  65  87 /  70  50  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

29

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