Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.AVIATION...
BULK OF RAIN/STORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO WRN AND NRN AR ATTM AND SHRT
TERM MODELS CONT TO INDC THIS TREND FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING. WENT
WITH OCNL SHRA/TSRA AT KHRO AND KBPK INTO EARLY WED MRNG...WITH
CIGS/VSBYS REDUCED TO MVFR CAT IN RAINFALL. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE THRU LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND SRN AR...WITH LOW CLOUDS/
PTCHY BR DVLPG AFT 09Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
ACRS THE REST OF THE FA. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP LATE WED MRNG
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTN...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MAIN CDFNT ACRS WRN AR LATE WED AFTN. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WL NOT START TO EFFECT THE FCST SITES UNTIL JUST AFT
00Z. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE
EVIDENT FROM WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH TORNADO
WATCHES POSTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AHEAD OF STORMS...PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW...AND
ARRIVING IN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MORNING SOUNDING
AT LZK SHOWED A CAPE OF 1524 J/KG...AN LI OF -5...AND A PWAT OF
1.45. STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND
WIND ENERGY NOT QUITE THERE YET. COULD SEE A FEW HAILERS INTO THIS
EVENING.

ROUND ONE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...AND WILL AWAIT SEVERE STORMS TO THE WEST. TORNADO WATCH
ALREADY POSTED IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS UNTIL 04Z. LATEST
DATA SHIFTING STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN
TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY WORKING INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

ON WEDNESDAY...STORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. IN THE WEST...SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. THIS WILL FUEL THE ATMOSPHERE
JUST AS THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

FRONT/STORMS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY.

WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. IN GENERAL...HALF
INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
MORE.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH A MOSTLY DRY LONG TERM AHEAD. (46)

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS. (38)
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
835 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH
LATE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST OF
ARKANSAS. TORNADOES...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL END
EARLY...AND THE SUN MAY COME OUT. WITH ANY WARMING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WOULD DESTABILIZE...WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF ARKANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
PUSH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE STATE. BY
THURSDAY MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS...TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION.

51

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
701 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

ARZ040-250045-
POLK-
701 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VANDERVOORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WHISKEY PEAK...BOGG SPRINGS...RYE
HILL...OLD COVE...HATTON...HATFIELD...MENA...COVE...BETHEL CHAPEL
AND LONE VALLEY.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
712 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

ARZ030-037-250055-
LOGAN-SCOTT-
712 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LOGAN AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

AT 707 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WALDRON...PARIS...ECHO...
TATE...IONE...GLENDALE...BOY SCOUTS LAKE...BARBER...CAROLAN AND
MIXON.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
822 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WICKES                  34.30N 94.34W
04/24/2007                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND WICKES.

&&

219