Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2007

Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 5, 2007Pulaski County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Jul 5, 2007, 2:51 PM CDT for Pulaski County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 5, 2007, 2:51 PM CDT (19:51 UTC)
Expired
Jul 5, 2007, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR
Area
Whole counties

County Pulaski County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 9 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2007-07-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1096 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2007-07-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1096 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-28 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
848 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 5, 1:54 PM CDT, 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 1:54 PM CDT, 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
154 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BEFORE STALLING OUT...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING
OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND PROGRESS SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME KIND OF WEAK UPPER TROF REMAINS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. MODELS KEEP TRYING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE NOT BEEN RIGHT ABOUT THIS FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS AND AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT IT THIS TIME. BASICALLY WENT
WITH MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOME MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID TEND TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER ON
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DID NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE WITH MINS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AND MAXES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DID HEDGE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT FROM INCREASED
CLOUDS AS MUCH AS FROM THE EFFECTS OF ANY FRONT THAT MAY MANAGE TO
REACH THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  89  68  90 /  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         72  84  69  91 /  50  50  30  30
HARRISON AR       69  90  67  89 /  40  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  87  69  89 /  50  40  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  71  91 /  50  40  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  84  71  91 /  60  50  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      70  86  65  87 /  50  40  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  94  68  92 /  40  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        70  90  68  91 /  40  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  87  70  89 /  50  50  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  90  65  90 /  40  30  30  30
SEARCY AR         72  89  69  90 /  50  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      72  89  72  90 /  50  50  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...29
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:01 AM CDT, 9 hours 50 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
501 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
501 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS WILL
SPREAD SOME ENERGY NORTH TOWARD SOUTH ARKANSAS...WHICH WILL HELP
DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ARKANSAS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH...AND HELP
FORM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK FRONT OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM A LOW OVER EAST TEXAS...WILL HELP
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ON SUNDAY...
THE FRONT WASHES OUT...AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOWER. OTHERWISE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 5, 2:42 PM CDT, 9 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 5, 9:10 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryLZKConway, Perry18 days
Jul 5, 9:10 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryLZKArkansas, Desha, Lincoln18 days
Jul 5, 3:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKJohnson, Newton115 min
Jul 5, 3:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKIndependence113 min
Jul 5, 5:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKBaxter, Boone, Marion2 hr
Jul 5, 5:57 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKFulton2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2007Every flash flood warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.