Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROF TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD
LESSEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRING THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM RECENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH MAY ALSO FOCUS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LOCATING THESE IS TOUGH BUT THESE SHOULD TEND TO BE IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. GFS HINTS AT CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY INCREASING TOWARD
MORNING. BASICALLY WENT WITH POPS FROM 30 IN THE NORTHEAST TO 50 IN
THE SOUTHWEST FOR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASED POPS LATER TONIGHT
BUT MAINTAINED 40 POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LET IT EXPIRE
AT 00Z. EVENING SHIFT CAN EXTEND IF IT LOOKS NECESSARY. FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST RUNNING
AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE POPS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MAY EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE INTO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION. AT ANY RATE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AIR MASS STILL MOIST FROM THE ONGOING SITUATION WILL
RESULT IN BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH SMALL POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH. MINS WILL HOLD RATHER
STEADY WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. MAXES MAY MOVE UP A LITTLE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS CONVECTION DECREASES SOME.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
I/M BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT...EXTENDED PERIODS
HOLD LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. MEANDERING H5 LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURE. MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH
ANY MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...PRODUCING MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY FORWARD MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE
BLOCKED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GFS MOS
NUMBERS SEEM TO INDICATE THIS FAIRLY WELL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  87  69  90 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         71  86  71  91 /  50  50  30  30
HARRISON AR       67  85  67  87 /  40  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  87  70  90 /  50  40  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  88  72  90 /  40  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     71  88  70  91 /  40  40  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      68  87  69  90 /  50  40  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  85  67  87 /  30  20  10  20
NEWPORT AR        68  89  70  91 /  30  20  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  88  72  91 /  40  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  87  69  89 /  40  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         69  88  69  91 /  40  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      70  89  71  91 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-CONWAY-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN
BUREN-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY
-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
230 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER
ARKANSAS...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ALREADY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTHERN...AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THUS...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE
OF MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE
END OF WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

32/57

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