Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KLZK RADAR SHOWS STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP IN
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WITH A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING...WILL EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES
NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK AND EXTEND IT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING. WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.99 ON THE KLZK RAOB...LOCAL AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH
TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD CONTINUITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DIVERGING A BIT LATER
ON. MODELS AGREE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT EASTERN CONUS TROFFING.BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE IS THEIR HANDLING OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. MODELS ALL
BRING ENERGY OVER THE TOP WHICH FLATTENS FEATURE OUT LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT BELIEVE SPEED OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE ECWMF MAY BE TOO
FAST AND WILL OPT FOR THE SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH BROAD TROFF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FRONT WAS NEVER REALLY DYNAMIC TO BEGIN WITH
AND NOW EVEN LESS VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH MOISTURE NEVER
REALLY LEAVING THE AREA...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE NO APPRECIABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES AND HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL.

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES NON DESCRIPT BY THE END
OF IT AS PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. TEMPERATURES IN THIS
SCENARIO LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. FWC/MEX NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  81  69  85 /  70  70  20  10
CAMDEN AR         70  91  71  88 /  70  70  50  30
HARRISON AR       66  80  66  82 /  70  70  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  85  70  87 /  70  70  50  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  83  70  88 /  70  70  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     69  91  71  88 /  70  70  50  20
MOUNT IDA AR      69  86  69  87 /  70  70  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  80  67  82 /  70  70  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  82  69  86 /  70  70  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  88  71  88 /  70  70  50  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  81  68  85 /  70  70  40  20
SEARCY AR         69  82  70  87 /  70  70  30  20
STUTTGART AR      70  85  71  88 /  70  70  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-PERRY-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY
-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
930 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE
AREA... SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING ACROSS THIS
PART OF THE STATE.

THE GREATEST CONCERN FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE AS
WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN THE LOWEST
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN LIGHT AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND COULD DROP A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT NOT COMPLETELY
END.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SINK TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE
OF MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE
END OF WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ARZ055-062-011835-
DALLAS-GRANT-
103 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DALLAS AND GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 130
PM CDT...

AT 101 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
140 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ARZ055-056-063-011920-
CLEVELAND-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
140 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLEVELAND...GRANT AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF RISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

ARZ038-039-012005-
PERRY-YELL-
236 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PERRY AND YELL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56