Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS IS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CU WILL DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SEVERAL VORT CENTERS WILL BE IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPETUS BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROF AND SOME UNSTABLE AIR AT ALL TIMES WILL MEAN
HAVING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST AT ALL TIMES. PRETTY MUCH
WENT WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS
AT NIGHT BUT THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS IN THAT BASED ON AREAS WHERE
THE MODELS SHOWED SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND QPF. A LOT OF THE FAVORED
AREAS FOR POPS WILL BE DETEREMINED BY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND WHERE
BOUNDARIES SET UP. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE RAIN
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP AND HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN. MINS WILL BASICALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MAXES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90. GFS STILL BRINGS COPIOUS MOISTURE TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING VERY HIGH POPS. STILL SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF
THIS BUT HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWER MAXES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AS SHEAR AXIS MEANDERS AROUND THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...TRY
TO BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST CONUS H5 RIDGING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...HAVING A HARD TIME SEEING A FRONT PUSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE AREA...BUT MAY STALL OR WASH
OUT OVER US. AT ANY RATE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...
ALONG WITH SCATTERED...MOSTLY DIURNAL POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  69  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         90  70  91  70 /  30  20  30  30
HARRISON AR       85  67  88  68 /  40  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  72  90  73 /  30  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  92  71 /  30  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      89  70  89  68 /  30  20  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  88  68 /  40  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  69  91  69 /  40  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  72  91  73 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  89  68 /  40  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         88  70  90  69 /  40  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      88  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...57
AVIATION...219

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE THREAT
WITH THESE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY REPEAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER AROUND THE MID SOUTH.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

57