Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2007

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE HOT SPRINGS AND LITTLE ROCK TERMINALS BEFORE
08Z AND THE PINE BLUFF TERMINAL BEFORE 10Z. RAIN WILL BEGIN
SLACKING UP IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE ON AND NEAR THE GROUND...EXPECT
FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM... WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LOW IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HOT/LIT/PBF WILL SEE CONDITIONS
RESTRICTED TO MVFR/IFR IN AND AROUND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER ON THIS
MORNING...AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. EXPECT OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AROUND THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER ARKANSAS. AN UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO APPROACH
ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM NORTH OKLAHOMA...THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO WESTERN
MISSOURI. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO BE AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT SEEMS TO STALL IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY HOWEVER TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA...AND NORTH
AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS NOW LOOK LIKE THEY ARE KEEPING THE STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE RESULTING WEEKEND COLD FRONT WILL
BEHAVE MORE LIKE THE RECENT FRONTS. THIS MEANS THE FRONT MAY REACH
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THEN STALL AND WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY EVEN DISSIPATE.
BASED ON THIS HAD TO DRAMATICALLY RAISE TEMP AND DEW POINT FORECASTS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM. NEEDED TO DO IT ALSO TO FIT IN
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE PRESENT ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT THE
REMNANTS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OR JUST TO THE WEST. WENT MAINLY
WITH SMALL POPS FOR NOW FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY AND THE AFTER EFFECTS OF ANY
GULF SYSTEM MOVE NORTH...WENT WITH SMALL POPS TO THE SOUTH TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH. MOISTURE DECREASES AFTER MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPARENTLY DISSIPATES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
EAST. ALSO UPPER RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
845 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO
EASTERN MISSOURI...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO ARKANSAS
DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE...TO SEARCY...TO AUGUSTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH. ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA SOME TIME
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE FORECAST CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN
NOW AND THIS WEEKEND. BE SURE TO STAY INFORMED BY MONITORING THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THROUGH TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

ARZ003-030300-
BOONE-
913 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF OAK GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH. SOME AREAS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RED
BLUFF...OMAHA...NEW HOPE...DENVER AND CREST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
958 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

ARZ003>005-030345-
BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-
958 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BAXTER...BOONE AND MARION COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 957 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEAD HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH LEAD HILL...PEEL...TATER KNOB...PINE
MOUNTAIN AND BULL SHOALS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1046 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

ARZ004>006-014-015-030430-
BAXTER-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-STONE-
1046 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BAXTER...FULTON...IZARD...MARION AND
STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1043 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH. SOME AREAS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE
NORFORK...HOPEWELL...SALESVILLE...PINEVILLE...CALICO ROCK AND
MELBOURNE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56