Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT TWO DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 8PM. GREATEST THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
WITH WBZ OF AROUND 10KFT AND CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG. ACTIVITY OVER
NE PA AND NJ ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NOW/SPS/SVR WARNINGS FOR
UPDATES ON CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT STILL
CANT RULED OUT ISOLD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGEST MARINE LYR WILL START ADVECTING INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND WRN ATLC UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MAIN DIFFERENCE TO TODAY IS
THAT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MORE STABLE AS A RESULT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT OVR THE EAST AND ALG THE
BAY SO THUNDER MAY BE JUST CONFINED TO W OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS.
ATTM...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SVR THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BRINGING COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO...A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...ENHANCING THE MARINE FLOW. AS FOR PRECIP...PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING FROM THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING.
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY FRIDAY...BUT WE LEFT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH SOME MORE
SUNSHINE AS WELL. THERE IS STILL THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES BUT AT THIS TIME
MOST PLACES SHOULD TURN OUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SCT TSTMS THRU 0Z. MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING WITH MARINE PUSH AND
AGAIN THU MORNING. TSTM THREAT NOT AS HIGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...EAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SCT TSTMS THRU
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...BJL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
108 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-131000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
108 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS VERY COLD AND HAIL IS EXPECTED FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MARYLAND...AND BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
VIRGINIA THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS SUNSET APPROACHES.

THE PRIMARY RISK FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

VAZ036-121830-
NELSON VA-
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NELSON COUNTY...

AT 159 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
EAST OF NELLYSFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF SHIPMAN AND LOVINGSTON WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING/SAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

VAZ036-121900-
NELSON VA-
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NELSON COUNTY...

AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF LOVINGSTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF ROSELAND...MASSIES MILL...ARRINGTON AND TYE RIVER
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

MDZ005-006-122000-
CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CARROLL AND NORTHERN BALTIMORE
COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF HAMPSTEAD TO HEREFORD...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF WESTMINSTER AND REISTERSTOWN WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

MDZ007-122030-
HARFORD MD-
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HARFORD COUNTY...

AT 359 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF PERRYMAN AND ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

MDZ004-005-009-010-122115-
CARROLL MD-FREDERICK MD-HOWARD MD-MONTGOMERY MD-
441 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CARROLL...FREDERICK...HOWARD AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WOODSBORO TO SIMPSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF WALKERSVILLE...SCAGGSVILLE...GERMANTOWN...
ELLICOTT CITY...NEW MARKET...FREDERICK...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...
SPENCERVILLE...SANDY SPRING...MONROVIA...AND BRINKLOW WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING