Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
553 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 372 UNTIL 03Z.
INCREASED POPS BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

ADJUSTED BWI ACARS SOUNDING INDCIATES VERY MARGINAL MID LEVEL
CAPPING IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS HEIGHTS FALL FROM WEST TO EAST. MEANWHILE...MESOSCALE
LOW LEVEL JET COULD DEVELOP...ACTING TO INICATE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

18Z LWX WRF-ARW SUGGESTS SW PA CONVECTION ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND
AFFECTS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NICE DAY IN STORE WITH LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND CLEARING SKIES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS. TEMPS STILL VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S BUT
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1018 HPA HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY...AND KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE AREA ON SUN. THE 12Z NAM GFS AND 09Z SREF SHOW ON SUN A WEAK UPR
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRUSHING OVER
THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA DURING SUN AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM ACTUALLY
HAD SOME PRECIP OVER THE CHES BAY ON SUN...BUT FEW OF THE SREF
ENSEMBLES HAVE MUCH MOISTURE.

MDLS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON KEEPING OMEGA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. MODEL TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THIS
PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD STILL HAS SOME QUESTIONS. THE
12Z GFS BRINGS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
ON WED AND RACING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THUR BEFORE TAKING UP
A POSITION OVER LONG ISLAND ON FRI AND SAT. SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...WED-FRI...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DETAILS
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT AT THIS POINT ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN
TO PIN DOWN. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN LOOKS ALITTLE UNSETTLED TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WDLY SCT TSTMS THRU ABT 01-02Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ON SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE BAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR SAT FOR NW WINDS 15G20KT. ISOLD TSTMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY NRN WATERS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR SAT THROUGH
SUN...AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036>042-
     050>057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-091000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS 5 PM
TO 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
445 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LURAY                   38.66N 78.46W
06/08/2007                   PAGE               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND MULTIPLE POWER OUTAGES IN LURAY.

&&

SMZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

MDZ009-082230-
MONTGOMERY MD-
559 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 559 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF POTOMAC...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF CHEVY CHASE...ASPEN HILL...OLNEY...WHITE OAK...
COLESVILLE...HILLANDALE AND FAIRLAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
604 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-
036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-090400-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...
WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
604 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AT 6 PM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR AROUND 745 PM. IF THE LINE HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT WOULD NEAR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC AROUND 9
PM...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AROUND 10 PM.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN UP TO AN
INCH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED THIS EVENING FOR WARNINGS AS STORMS APPROACH.

ROGOWSKI

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