Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT FRI JUNE 1 2007

.NEAR TERM...UNTIL 12 AM TONIGHT...

PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
TODAY AND THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
STORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROS...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY
STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...12 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY...

MOUNTAIN/VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNING. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND
NOON TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SIMILAR THREATS AS
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...

I FEEL A CERTAIN AMT OF SKEPTICISM REGARDING THE CHCS OF SIG RAFL IN
MUCH OF THE XTND PD...MUCH AS THE MID ATLC NEEDS IT. THE NAM HAS
BEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MDL IN DVLPG A LOW IN THE ERN GULFMEX AND
TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE MID ATLC STATES LATE SUN...AND IT IS
DELIVERING LKLY POPS SUN AND SUN NGT TO MUCH OF THE RGN. EVEN IF
THIS SCENARIO IS WHAT DVLPS SENSE THE HVIER RAFL WOULD BE CONTAINED
TO THE ERN PART OF THE CWA. GFS ALSO DVLPG A LOW...BUT ON A MORE
ERLY TRACK. BOTTOM LN - AT THIS TIME I WOULD PREFER TO KEEP AREA IN
CHC POPS SUN.

ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK LKLY WL BE A COOLING PATTERN DURG THE 1ST
PART OF THE WK. SHRT WV LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THE RGN MON NGT HELPING
TO AMPLIFY A TROF OVR ERN N. AMERICA. I SEE A LOT OF 70S IN BOTH THE
NMRCL GUIDNC AND GRIDDS...BUT E OF MTNS ID LK TO AT LEAST HV 80 IN
THE TEMP FIELD. LOOKING AT OUR/MDL TEMPS PREFORMANCE OVR THE ENTIRE
14 PD FCST GNRLY ALL SKEW SLGTLY COOL BYND 5TH PD.

HGTS ON THE RISE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WK..TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
NEAR 90 BY NEXT FRI E OF MTNS.

&&
MARINE...

WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES ARE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS
TO BE TEMPORARY...SO WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KNOTS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD BE PSBL ON THE LOWER CHES SUN NGT. TIDAL ANOMALIES
ON WRN SHORE OF CHES BAY ALSO PSBL SUN NGT/MON. THIS WL HAVE TO CONT
TO BE MONITORED.

&&
AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST TO UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED IN THE USUAL SUSPECT
PLACES. USED THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST COUPLE MORNINGS AS
GUIDANCE. HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTER 18Z.

ISOLD TSTMS/RAFL PSBL SUN-MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS E OF THE AREA. IT
WL BE LATER BEFORE EXACT CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE DETERMINED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PRODUCTS...SAR/WOODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-021030-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1018 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE SUNDAY COINCIDENT WITH A FULL MOON. INCREASING WINDS AROUND
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY LEAD BUILDING WATER LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE WILL MONITOR LATER GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY SINCE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...ALL REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
527 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

VAZ025-012145-
AUGUSTA VA-
527 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT AUGUSTA COUNTY AND NORTHERN STAUNTON...

AT 5:25 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
STAUNTON... MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF VERONA AND NORTHERN STAUNTON WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM. ALSO THE STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 81 JUST NORTH OF
STAUNTON. DRIVE WITH CAUTION. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. MOVE INDOORS.

STRONG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
547 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

VAZ025-012210-
AUGUSTA VA-
547 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT AUGUSTA COUNTY AND STAUNTON...

AT 5:45 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER STAUNTON...MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE STAUNTON AREA AS WELL AS INTERSTATE 81.
DRIVE WITH CAUTION. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 MPH. MOVE INDOORS.

STRONG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
608 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

VAZ025-012245-
AUGUSTA VA-
608 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT STAUNTON...

AT 6:05 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER STAUNTON...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE STAUNTON AREA AS WELL AS INTERSTATES 81
AND 64. DRIVE WITH CAUTION. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... DIME SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
35 MPH. MOVE INDOORS.

STRONG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
722 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

WVZ050-012345-
HAMPSHIRE WV-
722 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...

AT 7:20 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE STORMS
WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF BLOOMERY AND LEVELS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM BETWEEN 7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN... GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH.. AND SMALL HAIL.

STRONG

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