Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1118 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER DRIFTING SE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SATURDAY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID NEXT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
BY WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID ATLANTIC IS SHAPING UP FOR ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR...ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN THE HIGH HUMIDITY WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S WITH A FEW MID 70S. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
LINGER THRU THE AFTN WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID TO U80S ACROSS
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BEFORE 11AM. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOISTURE
POOLING AND WIDESPREAD HAZINESS.

HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY ON THE 12Z IAD
SOUNDING...NEARLY 4000 J/KG. SLIGHTLY MORE STEERING FLOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LOW CONV INHIBITION WILL MAKE FOR
SOME ISOLATED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. LL INVERSION STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF CONVECTION FOR EARLY AFTN...A FEW ISOLATED IN THE
MTNS WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS AIDING IN INITIATION. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTN WILL CREATE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION
THAT DOESN/T BREAK THE CAP UNTIL MAX HEATING THIS AFTN. CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MAX HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CD FNT ACROSS NRN VA/MD ARND 06Z. OBVIOUSLY W/ ATMOSPHERE AS JUICED
AS THIS ONE WL BE THIS COMBO WL LKLY LEAD TO CNVCTN THIS EVE.
ARW/WRF DVLPS STORMS ON THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN WHICH WL SPREAD E
DURG EVE HRS. XTRM NWRN PART OF THE CWA IS OUTLOOKED SVR. WOULDNT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS MOVED FURTHER SE LATER TDA.

WOODY

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUN AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MON. A WEAK WAVE FORMING ALG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SHRAS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BDRY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THU AND STALL OFF
THE ATLC COAST.

ROSA

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED AFTN TSTRMS ACROSS THE MTNS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...SPREADING TO LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CU FIELD SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BEFORE MAX
HEATING...THEN VCTS FOR DC METRO TAF SITES LATER IN THE AFTN WITH
BETTER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY.

NMRS RW AND TRW PSBL SUN. HIGH PRES RETURNS MON NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AGAIN ACROSS THE BAY STAYING JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE CHESAPEAKE
STRONGEST BEFORE FROPA...THEN A NW/ERLY SHIFT ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MORE TSTRMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>042-050>057.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
AVIATION...GMS
MARINE...GMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1121 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-261000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1121 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.

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