Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
312 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN STORY FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND PORTIONS OF
THE SW CWFA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD DWINDLE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LEFT CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW.

HAVE POPULATED THE MAX TEMPS WITH THE ADJMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRI MORN WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF
THE COAST BY LATE THE AFTN. LOWER RH/S AND LOWER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL SURGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

STRONG RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THRU EARLY
SUN.

&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER SW WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL
BE LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY..STAYING LIGHT THROUGH EARLY
AFTN SAT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ533>537.

&&

LISTEMAA/SCHOOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-201000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
256 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SENECA ROCKS TO LURAY
LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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