Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH
FROM NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9 PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
SEVERAL TRIGGERS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING
SOUTH FOR STROMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FURTHER
SOUTH...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS FROM LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES
HAVE ALREADY TRIGGERED STORMS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A MARINE
LAYER IS TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. AHEAD OF
THIS...STORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
TRIGGERS WILL CONTROL THE FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. PRIMARY
THREAT TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IS LARGE HAIL...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS. WENT VERY CLOSE TO ADJMAV AND MOSGUIDE
FOR MOST EVENING GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE STORMS. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...SHOWERS AND MOYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY SUN...HIGH PRES BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT TO SEA WITH CUT OFF LOW OVR THE WRN ATL LIFTING TO THE NE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS RIDGE OVR THE
MIDWEST MOVES EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND OVR THE EAST
COAST STATES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MON-TUE FOR WDLY SCT TSTMS MAINLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A STRONG UPPER LVL TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION WED-THU PUSHING A SIG CDFNT THRU THE AREA BY NEXT THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH LATE EVENING. A MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST BEHIND THE STORMS. LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
MVFR FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT GET
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND NOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A MARINE LAYER WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING BEHIND THE STORMS. EASTERLY WINDS WITH THIS
MARINE LAYER WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...BUT ITS MARGINAL. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
WATERS...HIGHER WINDS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS WHEN NEEDED. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY A
SOLID 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEEDED AREAS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PRODUCTS...SAR/ROSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-141000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
235 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE
EASTERN PAN HANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC AS WELL AS
THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISK.

EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NEAR SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
PREDICTIONS TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS AS A RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUPPORT THIS
AFTERNOON. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1257 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

VAZ025-131800-
AUGUSTA VA-
1257 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT AUGUSTA COUNTY...

AT 1257 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTH OF WEST AUGUSTA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF WEST AUGUSTA AND AUGUSTA SPRINGS WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
130 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ACTIVATED THE
SKYWARN NETWORK DUE TO EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY NET FREQUENCY IS 147.3 ZERO ZERO MEGA HERTZ. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
137 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

MDZ013-131800-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-
137 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...

AT 137 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GLENN DALE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF GREENBELT...NEW CARROLLTON...LANDOVER...
MITCHELLVILLE...HYATTSVILLE...CHEVERLY...SEAT PLEASANT AND
BLADENSBURG WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

MANNING

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