Wind Advisory 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS74 KLUB 220339
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1039 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-220445-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070422T0500Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...
BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...ODONNELL...POST
1039 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER A COUPLE FEW
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
455 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

.UPDATE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ADVISORY LEVELS AND EXPECT THEY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH BASED THUNDER UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. DO EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2007/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS WTXM
OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED PAST HR IN TO THE 40S. HOWEVER...THE
WIND DIRECTION CONTINUES FROM THE S-SE AND WILL POSSIBLY BACK A BIT
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. WITH BACKED WINDS THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
DRYLINE MAY REMAIN WEAK. PRELIM DATA FROM WTXM REESE SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP FARTHER EAST...ABOUT 110 MB
VCNTY KLBB. APPROX 1.5 DEGREE C CAP REMAINS AROUND 760 MB...AND
WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE NEARLY ELIMINATED NEXT COUPLE HRS. IN
ADDITION...GDP IS GUSTING UP TO 54 KTS FROM THE SW AND VIS IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT FROM NE NM INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.

THUS IT APPEARS THAT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...3 PM TO 5 PM TIME FRAME.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE/NE NM AND THEN EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL SPLNS. AGAIN...DUE TO LINGERING CAP AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF TSTMS AT LEAST INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KLBB. IF CI IS
DELAYED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED IT WILL SHRINK THE POTENTIAL WINDOW
FOR TORNADO-PRODUCING SUPERCELLS IN OUR CWA. HIGHEST POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ABOUT PLAINVIEW NORTHWARD AND EAST OF I-27
INTO HALL COUNTY.

AFTER 0Z/7PM THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WTX AND
OVERTAKE DRYLINE...AT WHICH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND THEN MOVE EAST FROM THE CAPROCK INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WE AWAIT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL APPROACH WEST TEXAS
LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT GET SHUNTED TOO FAR TO THE
EAST WITH THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL FOR THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING
OVERHEAD BUT WE SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND
LIKELY SEE AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  77  48  82  49 /  10   0   0  20  30
TULIA         49  78  47  80  48 /  60   0   0  20  40
PLAINVIEW     50  78  50  81  53 /  60   0   0  20  40
LEVELLAND     51  81  51  83  50 /  30   0   0  20  30
LUBBOCK       53  80  55  83  60 /  50   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    52  81  52  85  53 /  30   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     55  82  53  83  60 /  70  10   0  30  40
SPUR          55  81  52  83  56 /  60   0   0  20  40
ASPERMONT     59  81  54  84  58 /  50  10   0  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

18/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

TXZ021>044-221700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1148 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM HART...TO LUBBOCK...TO POST...TO ASPERMONT. SURROUNDING
THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EXCEPT FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
COUNTIES.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING WEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR A DIMMITT
TO BROWNFIELD LINE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH MOIST AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRYLINE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 3 PM.