Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 262133
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TXC437-262145-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-070526T2145Z/
SWISHER TX-
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SWISHER COUNTY...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER VIGO PARK...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
TULIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG FM 146 AND FM 2301 
IN NORTHEAST SWISHER COUNTY.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3475 10148 3475 10163 3459 10162 3459 10147

$$

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 262149
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
448 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TXC437-262158-
/O.EXP.KLUB.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-070526T2145Z/
SWISHER TX-
448 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SWISHER COUNTY 
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN SWISHER COUNTY HAS WEAKENED BUT 
REMAINS STRONG. HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMATER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN BRISCOE 
COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 3475 10148 3475 10163 3459 10162 3459 10147

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
IN GENERAL...SW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND SE WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST HAS PRODUCED SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE SO LIGHT THAT
CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. LINE OF TCU AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
BRISCOE AND FLOYD COUNTIES WITH A BIT OF EXTRA PUSH ALONG THE
CAPROCK. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS GIVES CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A
RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...AREA PROFILERS SHOW
VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL OPT FOR NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FCST FOR THIS EVE...AND CONTINUE CHC OF
TSTMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. CHC OF SVR IS SLIM
HOWEVER ISOLD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
WITH PWATS RUNNING ABOUT AN INCH...THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATER TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. NW FLOW ALOFT AND SE LOW-LVL FLOW BOTH APPEAR
TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAKING IT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT
THEY CAN MAKE IT TO THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS

MORE TSTM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW. A SHTWV TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NV/UT TODAY SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH NM...INITIATING MORE
TSTMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z NAM BRINGS A WEAK
WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS LOW-LVL FLOW VEERS
AND THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR LOCAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WITH
FCST SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
CAP. HOWEVER...WEAK SUBSIDENCE MAY BE IN PLACE UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVE WHEN SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES FROM THE TROUGH UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...
WEAK CAP AND WEAK FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY
GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. BET CHANCES WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
ROLL OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CWA. MIDDLE LEVEL CAP WILL
INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN EXTRA NUDGE FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THEN THE QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTION CAN
ROLL OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE ON THE DECREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE A BIT CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DICTATING
THE HIGHS. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  83  58  85  59 /  50  30  30  20  40
TULIA         56  80  56  81  55 /  40  30  30  20  30
PLAINVIEW     58  80  59  82  59 /  40  30  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     58  83  59  88  60 /  30  30  20  20  40
LUBBOCK       60  81  62  83  63 /  30  30  20  20  40
BROWNFIELD    59  83  59  84  60 /  30  30  20  30  40
CHILDRESS     60  80  62  84  64 /  40  30  20  20  20
SPUR          59  82  59  83  61 /  30  30  30  20  40
ASPERMONT     63  81  61  84  61 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TXZ021>044-271630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNCAPPED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. WEAK WINDS ALOFT
WILL PREVENT ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60
MPH. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BECOME A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SPOTTER GROUPS AND
LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TXZ023-024-262130-
SWISHER TX-BRISCOE TX-
405 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS BRISCOE AND SWISHER COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR NORTHWEST SWISHER COUNTY...OR ABOUT 18
MILES NORTHEAST OF TULIA. THE STORM WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH.

HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.