Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 111456
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
956 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

TXC501-111515-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070311T1515Z/
YOAKUM TX-
956 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN YOAKUM COUNTY...

AT 955 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DENVER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENVER CITY.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3298 10306 3284 10293 3297 10261 3319 10262

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
436 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

.SHORT TERM...
DIFFLUENT FLOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE ALL HAVE CAUSED RAIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THERE MAY
BE SOME BRIEF LULLS IN THE ACTIVITY AT TIMES TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS VERY
CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
ECHOES. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL FOR
THE CWA AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA A BIT IF WE SEE ANY BREAKS AT ALL THEN THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST.

RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD EXIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY SO WE
DONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN OUR
CURRENTS. A 5 TO 10 DEGREES DIURNAL RANGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY STILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK SOME AT THIS TIME AS AFTERNOON HEATING LIKELY WILL DRIVE
THE CONVECTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LOW.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ON MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY WARM ON TUESDAY. DEFINITELY MUCH WARMER BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH SOME CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR THURSDAY.
UPSLOPE SLOW AND LIKELY SOME LOW CLOUD COVER LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS ON
FRIDAY...BUT IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS TOO THICK WE WILL BE COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  39  58  41  71 /  90  70  40  20  10
TULIA         55  41  60  43  69 / 100  70  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     56  45  61  46  69 / 100  70  40  30  20
LEVELLAND     58  45  61  43  71 /  90  70  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       57  46  62  47  71 / 100  70  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    59  46  60  47  71 /  80  70  40  30  10
CHILDRESS     59  50  65  52  72 / 100  70  40  30  20
SPUR          59  49  66  48  73 / 100  70  40  30  20
ASPERMONT     64  47  69  50  75 / 100  70  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

TXZ021>044-121100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
551 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING

AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MAY FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE
TRAINING OF ECHOES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER CONTACTS ARE URGED TO PASS ALONG ANY OBSERVED
FLOODING IN THEIR REGION. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO WATER
OF UNKNOWN DEPTHS.