Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING HAS AIDED IN
MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES RUNNING IN THE
500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN TIER
PER SPC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL PRODUCE A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND PERHAPS SEVERE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNSET. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MORNING HWO ALREADY HANDLES THESE THREATS AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BEST
THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASING MARKEDLY EAST OF THERE. A
DECENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR WHICH COULD
BRING AN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF TONIGHT FROM I-27 EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT WILL IN QUESTION AS DAYTIME
HEATING FADES.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE 00-06Z MENTION WITH ADDITIONAL
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL WORDING IN THE ZFP FOR AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
MODERATED AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. WILL STILL SIDE TOWARD THE COOLER
END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND STAY IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWEST ALOFT. MORNING RUNS OF THE NAM-WRF AND GFS DID INDICATE A
DECENT SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.M WHILE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES ALL SECTIONS WITH HIGHER POPS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S.  KW

.LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO WEST TEXAS THURS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT H50 TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI AFTN AS SFC TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EMERGE ACRS THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY BUT STILL WITH BEST UPR LIFT TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY ARGUES FOR SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER DESPITE MID LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENING A BIT.

WEAK FROPA WILL BRIEFLY EDGE INTO THE CWFA ON SUNDAY AS WAVE EXITS
TO THE EAST...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGS COOLING EXPECTED.
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
OVERALL UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE
MONDAY AS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING THE STRONGER STORMS TO STAY NORTH
AND WEST OF KLBB AND COMPLETELY AWAY FROM KCDS. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM APPROACHING KLBB BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS RIGHT
NOW IS LOW. WILL KEEP CB MENTION IN THE TAF AND MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  84  58  84  59 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         57  83  59  85  61 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     60  84  60  85  62 /  30  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     58  85  61  86  62 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  86  62  86  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    60  86  62  87  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     63  87  63  87  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
SPUR          62  87  63  87  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     63  87  64  87  66 /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/21/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

TXZ021>044-271100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
551 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

TXZ027-028-262100-
BAILEY TX-LAMB TX-
316 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 314 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER BAILEY AND LAMB COUNTIES MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF WEST
CAMP...PROGRESS...MULESHOE...SUDAN AND AMHERST IN THE NEXT 45
MINUTES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH...HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

TXZ027-028-262200-
BAILEY TX-LAMB TX-
402 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS LAMB AND BAILEY COUNTIES...

AT 401 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER BAILEY AND LAMB
COUNTIES MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF BUT STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KW

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