Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SPLNS. SFC FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR CLOVIS TO CHILDRESS...BUT WEAK SFC TROUGH OR
OUTFLOW HAVE MOVED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TCU
FIELD ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SPECIAL 18Z WTXM SOUNDING FROM
REESE CONFIRMS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SHOWS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS
OF ABOUT 25 KTS. WITH SB-CAPES OF 3K PER SPC/RUC ANALYSIS STORMS
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/ENERGY FOR SOME ORGANIZATION AND SVR
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. TOR
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR VERY HIGH GIVEN THE WEAK LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGER BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WILL WATCH STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CAREFULLY AS IT SAGS
SOUTH THROUGH OUR NRN COUNTIES.

OTHER CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE AREA
THAT RECEIVED 4-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL YSTDY ROUGHLY FROM TULIA...TO
PLAINVIEW...TO FLOYDADA...TO TURKEY. IT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH AN EYE ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IF IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA.

ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT IN EMPHASIS TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE FCST ON SAT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVERNIGHT AND
HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR IN THE MORNING. BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE DURING THE DAY BUT MAJOR
DRYING DOES NOT SEEM TO OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS WITH A HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SE AND LOWEST NW. GFS MOS
TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREE ABOVE MET...FOR NOW WILL TREND MORE TOWARD
COOLER MET.

.LONG TERM...
GIVEN CONCERNS WITH EVOLVING SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
BRIEF HERE WITH THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL WILL COMMENCE LATE MONDAY WHEN A
PROGRESSIVE/SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
CONTINUE A WARRANT OF CHANCE POPS /FAVORING THE NORTHEAST/ AND A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER FROPA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
FOLLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT THE KLBB AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVE..AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS...WITH GUST POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30
KTS. THE TSTMS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE. SOME AREAS
OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  82  60 /  50  30  20  20  20
TULIA         66  85  66  85  61 /  60  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     65  84  66  86  62 /  70  40  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  87  64  86  63 /  60  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  86  67  87  64 /  60  40  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  88  66  87  64 /  50  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     70  85  70  86  67 /  70  50  30  20  10
SPUR          69  85  70  87  65 /  50  40  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  87  71  89  69 /  40  40  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/20/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

TXZ021>044-081630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT.

FLOODING
DUE TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AND MAY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS THREAT
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. NO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

TXZ022-023-072100-
CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN CASTRO AND WESTERN SWISHER
COUNTIES...

AT 327 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF TULIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THE TOWN OF NAZARETH MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

TXZ039-072130-
YOAKUM TX-
353 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS YOAKUM COUNTY...

AT 347 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF PLAINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AVOID NORMAL FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

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