Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS
ARE NOW DEPICTING ISOLATED/SCT STORMS NOW FIRING INVOF SFC TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FURTHERMORE...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
INCREASE ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LIES ACRS THE RATON
MESA INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ALL THIS BODES FOR AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA
TONIGHT...WITH STILL THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD MOVE INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS
ACRS THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY NEAR SEVERE LEVELS EARLY THIS EVENING
GIVEN LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MODEST SHEAR. PRIMARY THREATS
WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE ISOLATED STORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SEND STORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AGAIN FAVORED FOR ANY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT REMAINED COOLER TODAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...SATURDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERN FA WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED NEARER THE DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR/
INSTABILITY A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL
ADDRESS THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVERNIGHT. A
WEAKNESS IN THE SAID RIDGE IS PROGGED TO WORK WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES MAY AGAIN PICK UP BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AGAIN MIGRATES
WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND COULD SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
FRONTAL PUSH. WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
CHANCE GRIDDED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  93  64  92  65 /  30  20  30  10  10
TULIA         67  92  66  93  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  66  91  67 /  30  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  92  66  91  66 /  20  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  69  92  68 /  20  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  92  67  92  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  94  71  95  71 /  30  20  20  10  10
SPUR          69  93  69  95  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  94  71  95  72 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

TXZ021>044-252000-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THOSE OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...
AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER OR LESS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE THOSE LOCALES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

TXZ039-242130-
YOAKUM TX-
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER YOAKUM
COUNTY...

AT 350 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTHWEST YOAKUM COUNTY...11
MILES WEST OF DENVER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

TXZ028-242145-
LAMB TX-
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LAMB COUNTY...

AT 410 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EARTH...OR ABOUT 18 MILES
NORTH OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

TXZ033-242200-
COCHRAN TX-
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS COCHRAN COUNTY...

AT 420 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORTON...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

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