Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS INITIATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH SATELLITE SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NRN FCST AREA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO SEEING
THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO INITIATE STORMS ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO
AND THEN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE ROCKIES OF NRN NEW
MEXICO. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY INTO SOME FORM OF
COMPLEX...WHICH WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO THE FCST AREA. SOME SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH SUNSET WITH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH CHANCE INTO LIKELY CATEGORY POPS LOOK GOOD
ATTM WITH SOME REFINEMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT MUCH LATER. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
STABILIZATION WEDNESDAY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIKELY OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
BE LESS LIKELY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FAVORING ERN AND SRN ZONES
GIVEN EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CLUSTERED TOGETHER BUT WITH THESE FACTORS FAVOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT PRECIP CHCS LOOK LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...WITH BEST CHCS IN PROXIMITY TO SHEAR AXIS IN THE SE ZONES.
THEN THE MAIN FACTOR FOR OUR FCST THU INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
POSITION OF THE SHEAR AXIS. UNFORTUNATELY THE MORNING GUIDANCE HAS
NOT INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z GFS RUN KEEPS
THE AXIS AND MAJORITY PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE FA WHILE THE NAM AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FURTHER WEST ALONG WITH HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL EXPAND
NE AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS...CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. SO...OUR AREA
SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE HOT/DRY WX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND THE COOLER/WET WX WITH THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW. ANY SUBTLE CHANGES IN EAST/WEST POSITION WILL
BE KEY. AT THIS POINT...MINIMAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FCST AS
IT ALREADY INDICATES BETTER PRECIP CHCS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...DECREASING FURTHER WEST. ALTHOUGH THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
INITIATE AFTN TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE NM MTNS...NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP IT TO OUR WEST.

THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND THUS
GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS APPEAR WARRANTED BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL NEAR THE NM BORDER.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE GRADUALLY LOWERING
HEIGHTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ACROSS SRN TX/NRN NM. WHETHER OR NOT
THIS IS A REMNANT OF THE OLD UPPER LOW...THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND PUT A BIT OF DOWNWARD PRESSURE
ON HIGH TEMPS...AND IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN/SE ZONES TO
INCREASE POPS THAT AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  84  64  87  61 /  60  20  20  20  20
TULIA         64  83  63  84  63 /  60  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  84  64  84  64 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  85  64  85  64 /  50  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  84  65  86  67 /  60  30  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  85  65  86  66 /  50  30  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     66  84  67  86  68 /  50  40  30  30  30
SPUR          69  86  67  86  68 /  60  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     68  85  70  86  70 /  50  50  40  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ021>044-271730-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THUS THERE IS
A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF A LEVELLAND
TO TULIA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WOULD CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE MOST FAVORED REGION FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT FROM
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY TO LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SPOTTER NETWORKS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL WANT TO
STAY ABREAST OF ANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ021>023-270015-
PARMER TX-CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-
603 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SWISHER...CASTRO AND
PARMER COUNTIES...

AT 600 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF FRIONA TO
15 MILES WEST OF CANYON TO 10 MILES EAST OF AMARILLO...MOVING SOUTH
AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTHWARD INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 630 PM AND 730 PM.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND COULD RESULT.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

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