Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE BEING TRANSMITTED ATTM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...AND INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE ADDITIONALLY INCLUDED A MENTION FOR DAMAGING WIND
THREATS.

A LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES ATTM WITH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD POOL
PRECEDING IT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR TO BE
EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND WIND FIELD
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS DID PREVIOUS...SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION AND DEPICTS
ACTIVITY ROLLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS DISCUSS A POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHWARD GIVEN HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS THE COMPLEX PUSHES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH THE
KCDS AND KLBB TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IN TWO WAVES. STRONG
WIND SHIFTS MAY PRECEDE THE STORMS AND THE NEED FOR AVIATION
WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE MONITORED AT KLBB.

APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE DIFFICULTY WITH THE KCDS
TAF/S GIVEN INOPERABLE CEILOMETER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KCDS
TAFS WILL BE NILLED GIVEN LACK OF DATA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
TERMINAL AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  91  64  97  64 /  50  10  10  10  10
TULIA         67  92  65  97  66 /  60  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  65  95  67 /  60  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  92  65  96  65 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  93  67  95  69 /  50  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  93  65  96  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  92  70  97  71 /  70  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  94  70  98  70 /  50  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  95  72  99  70 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
958 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TXZ021>044-201200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
958 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES...WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BE LOCALES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
826 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             BLACK                   34.68N 102.61W
06/19/2007  E0.75 INCH       PARMER             TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL AT GRAIN ELEVATOR ABOUT 820 PM AND ESTIMATED 60
            MPH WIND AROUND 810 PM

&&

GJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
830 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLACK                   34.68N 102.61W
06/19/2007  E60 MPH          PARMER             TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL AT GRAIN ELEVATOR ABOUT 820 PM AND ESTIMATED 60
            MPH WIND AROUND 810 PM

&&

GJE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
845 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TXZ021-200215-
PARMER TX-
845 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PARMER COUNTY...

AT 842 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF PARMER COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. THIS STORM
WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TXZ022-023-200300-
CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-
904 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SWISHER AND CASTRO COUNTIES...

AT 902 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CASTRO COUNTY
FROM EAST OF SUMMERFIELD TO EXTREME NORTHEAST CASTRO COUNTY. THIS
LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS HAD PUSHED SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STORMS INTO CENTRAL
CASTRO AND NORTHWEST SWISHER COUNTIES.

SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TXZ023-024-028>030-200345-
SWISHER TX-BRISCOE TX-FLOYD TX-HALE TX-LAMB TX-
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG WINDS OVER LAMB...
HALE...FLOYD...BRISCOE AND SWISHER COUNTIES...

AT 937 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AHEAD WELL AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW STRETCHED FROM FROM
17 MILES NORTH OF SILVERTON TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TULIA TO 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF PLAINVIEW TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MULESHOE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE GUST FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FOLLOW EVENTUALLY FOLLOW THE STRONGER WIND PASSAGE. MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TXZ028-029-200345-
HALE TX-LAMB TX-
1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAMB AND HALE COUNTIES...

AT 1002 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WERE ALONG A
LINE FROM A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF TULIA TO 18 MILES
EAST OF MULESHOE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.