Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND UPPER HIGH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS PUMPED PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
WEST TEXAS...MAKING IT REALLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. THIS WARM AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE RATHER SKINNY CAPE IN
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HENCE...ANTICIPATE STORMS THAT FORM TO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.25 WEST TO 1.65+ INCHES
EAST ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER ANY GIVEN
STORM. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE...SURFACE OBS AND RADAR DO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENT AXIS IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WHERE EARLIEST HEATING/CLEARING TOOK PLACE...AS WELL AS
ALONG SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
CONCHO VALLEY FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THUS...FAVORED BEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM ALMOST ANYWHERE IN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.

BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG /BR/...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT DENSE FOG GIVEN FLOW PROGGED TO VEER SOMEWHAT TOWARD MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS 25-30 KT LLJ AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REDEVELOPS. APPEARS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT WEST
TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OTHER POSSIBLE RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW MOVING OVERHEAD. THUS...GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEATING HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE MILD TEMPERATURES /LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S/ GIVEN ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 90.

.LONG TERM...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE DRAWN NWD OVER THE AREA
IN DEEP SLY FLOW BETWEEN UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS AND UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM SRN CALIF. DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK CAP COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY SEE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW ALOFT
AIDING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS NRN NM. BEYOND TUESDAY MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR. OPERATIONAL
GFS WITH ITS IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW GETS CUT OFF FROM FASTER FLOW
TO THE NORTH AND WOBBLES SLOWLY EWD UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE. GFS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EAST. ECMWF
MAY BE CLOSER TO ACCURATE WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. INHERITED FCST IS DRY BEYOND TUESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED PREFER TO KEEP IT THAT WAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY /SLIGHTLY COOLER
FOR HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR LOWS/. ASSUMING A DRIER PATTERN
EMERGES TOWARD WEEKS END WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  87  63  86  62 /  40  20  20  20  30
TULIA         63  85  65  86  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     65  87  66  87  65 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     66  87  66  86  67 /  30  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       68  86  68  88  67 /  30  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    68  88  66  87  68 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     68  90  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          69  88  70  92  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     70  87  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

TXZ021>044-101645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW. IF THEY DO...HEAVY RAIN
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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