Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE ATTM WILL PROPAGATE SEWD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST IN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DISTURBANCE
OVER NRN NM MOVES TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS REGION.
ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO MCS THIS EVENING WITH THREAT OF
TORNADOES EARLY...BECOMING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATER. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...18Z TECH
SOUNDING SHOWING INVERSION OF 18 DEG CELSIUS AT BASE OF ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. THUS WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE BEFORE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 00Z.

RISK OF SEVERE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES WILL AGAIN LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTG TO ADVECT HIGH
DEWPOINTS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
INTERESTING TO NOTE IN THE EXTENDED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND WRF/NMM
ARE SIGNALING AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING FROM NE NM SE TOWARD THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SIMILAR SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SYSTEM POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER WEST ALONG THE NM BORDER
AS MID/UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES. BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS VERY WARM
BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS WARMING INTO THE 90S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. GFS
HINTING AT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY. THAT SYSTEM MAY AGAIN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  82  56  82  58 /  50  20  50  50  50
TULIA         60  80  59  81  59 /  60  20  40  50  50
PLAINVIEW     60  81  61  83  60 /  60  20  40  40  50
LEVELLAND     61  82  61  84  59 /  50  20  30  40  50
LUBBOCK       62  82  63  84  61 /  50  20  30  40  50
BROWNFIELD    63  83  62  86  62 /  40  20  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  84  63 /  60  20  40  40  50
SPUR          64  82  64  84  62 /  50  20  40  30  50
ASPERMONT     65  84  66  85  65 /  50  30  30  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ021>044-021700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK LATER TODAY. RICH
MOISTURE AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TO INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INTERACTIONS WILL BE VERY COMPLEX...SO
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT AREAS WITH GREATER RISK. THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATER TODAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FLOODING

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...SOILS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION REMAIN
MOIST TO NEARLY SATURATED. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER TODAY COULD
LEAVE ISOLATED TOTALS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MANY OTHER AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF
EPISODES OF EXCESSIVE STORM WATER RUN-OFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY AID IN SOME STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             10 N PADUCAH            34.16N 100.30W
06/01/2007  E1.75 INCH       COTTLE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NORTH OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             8 NW PADUCAH            34.10N 100.40W
06/01/2007  E1.75 INCH       COTTLE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY PADUCAH DPS.

&&

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
450 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ038-012230-
KING TX-
450 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KING COUNTY...

AT 446 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROW...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GUTHRIE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KING
COUNTIES.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ039-040-020015-
TERRY TX-YOAKUM TX-
604 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS YOAKUM AND TERRY COUNTIES...

AT 555 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF TOKIO...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
NORTH OF SEAGRAVES...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLMAN.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ044-020030-
STONEWALL TX-
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS STONEWALL COUNTY...

AT 627 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SWENSON...OR ABOUT 23 MILES
EAST OF JAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALSO STRENGTHENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STONEWALL COUNTY.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
829 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ028-029-020230-
HALE TX-LAMB TX-
829 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LAMB AND HALE COUNTIES...

AT 825 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF OLTON...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTH
OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAMB COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN HALE COUNTY BEFORE 9 PM.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.