Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MERGER OF TWO BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THE LOWER
VALUES OF THE KLBB REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS THE LINEAR NATURE OF
THIS FEATURE AS IT STRETCHES FROM BOVINA TO DIMMITT TO TULIA TO
SILVERTON. STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RANDALL/COTTER/CARSON
AND ARMSTRONG COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM
MODEL OUTPUT IN RELATIVE PHASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN CONJUCTION
WITH A SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR CROSSING THE NM/TX STATE
LINE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA RESIDES IN A UPWARD ASCENT REGION/LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK.

HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA
WIDE...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHERN HALF FOR TONIGHT.  BML.10

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  60  82  56  82 /  60  50  20  30  40
TULIA         81  60  80  59  81 /  60  60  20  30  30
PLAINVIEW     84  60  81  61  83 /  60  60  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     87  61  82  61  84 /  50  50  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       87  62  82  63  84 /  50  50  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    87  63  83  62  86 /  20  40  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     83  65  81  64  84 /  60  60  20  30  20
SPUR          87  64  82  64  84 /  40  50  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     87  65  84  66  85 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ021>044-021700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK LATER TODAY. RICH
MOISTURE AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING TO INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INTERACTIONS WILL BE VERY COMPLEX...SO
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT AREAS WITH GREATER RISK. THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATER TODAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FLOODING

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...SOILS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION REMAIN
MOIST TO NEARLY SATURATED. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER TODAY COULD
LEAVE ISOLATED TOTALS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MANY OTHER AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF
EPISODES OF EXCESSIVE STORM WATER RUN-OFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY AID IN SOME STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
836 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW PADUCAH           33.91N 100.43W
05/31/2007  M60.00 MPH       COTTLE             TX   MESONET

            REPORTED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET.

&&

FBOWSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ024-025-011830-
BRISCOE TX-HALL TX-
1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HALL AND BRISCOE COUNTIES...

AT 1237 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF CAPROCK CANYON ST. PARK...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUITAQUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.