Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

000 
WWUS84 KLUB 192300
RFWLUB

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELED FOR AREA...

TXZ021>044-200000-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070220T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
500 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

$$

JAMES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007

.SHORT TERM...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. LEE SIDE
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING AND ADIABATIC
WARMING WILL CREATE VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. NWP DEWPOINTS ARE TOO LOW
FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SETUP. HAVE TRENDED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
TEENS ON THE CAPROCK. WEST TEXAS MESONET DATA FROM YESTERDAY
INDICATED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS NOTED. DID SEE A FEW SITES BRIEFLY TAP RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD LOW END
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RESULTS OF LOCAL WIND STUDY AND NWP ANALYSIS/COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS SUGGESTS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. EVEN THE MORE BULLISH GFS MOS KEEPS WIND SPEEDS IN THE
23-26KT RANGE. WILL KEEP A 25 TO 30 MPH FORECAST WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45 MPH RANGE TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON THE CAPROCK. PATCHY BLOWING DUST A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY NEAR OPEN FIELDS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SLUG OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT THE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OFFSET
MIXING/WIND SPEEDS BUT FEEL THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS WONT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST MIXING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT
SPEEDS OVER 10KTS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP PBL WELL MIXED WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S CAPROCK TO MIDDLE 40S OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.  KW

.LONG TERM...
WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS...FOR THE
MOST PART...MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY.
OF NOTE HOWEVER IS THE NAM-WRF WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF SRN CALIF. THE MODEL CONTINUES TO CUT
OFF ENERGY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE OPENING IT UP AND
SHIFTING EWD. BY THE TIME IT REACHES HERE IT IS STILL FAIRLY
VIGOROUS AND WITH MORE OF A BACKED FLOW IT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO A
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE THAN THE OTHER MODELS DEPICT. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND UKMET EACH ARE EVEN A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHEARED
WITH THIS WAVE THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
CONSENSUS ATTM THUS CONTINING TO YIELD A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SYSTEM. GRADIENT
STILL LOOKS PRETTY TIGHT FOR SATURDAY AND THUS STILL LOOKS LIKE A
POTENTIAL WIND PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH THIS RUN IS A LITTLE EARLIER
WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHICH WOULD TEND TO KEEP WINDS DOWN
SOME. STILL A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE THIS ONE AND WILL KEEP MENTION
LIMITED TO THIS DISCUSSION FOR NOW. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
PATTERN STILL LOOKS QUITE IFFY...HOWEVER...REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. TEMPS FOR THE WEEK LOOK TO
STAY WARM UNDER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE FLOW BUCKLES
THIS WEEKEND AND COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT TERMINALS
KLBB AND KCDS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THIS WILL YIELD SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 TO 40KTS AT
TIMES. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 23Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING. KW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR ALL 24
COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BY
MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND VERY DRY RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT.THIS
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL PROVIDE WARM AND
VERY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. NFDRS RATING OF HIGH HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR ALL OF THE AREA.  KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  36  64  28  68 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         69  35  65  32  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  37  67  32  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     73  38  69  32  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       74  39  70  35  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    73  39  70  32  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     76  41  69  38  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          76  41  73  40  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     78  45  74  41  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

17/07/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
549 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2007

TXZ021>044-191200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
549 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA...30 MPH...AT SOME
LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK MONDAY.