Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
841 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.UPDATE...
THE REMAINS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WOULD BRING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SO FAR THE LUBBOCK CWA HAS NOT SEEN ANY
AMOUNTS THAT WERE CAUSING PROBLEMS THUS FAR. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE DO NOT
PLAN ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE RAINFALL APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS CAN HANDLE A SLOW 1 TO 2
INCHES WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. IF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
CAN PERSIST THEN WE MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD
WATCH BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  85  66  89  67 /  40  30  20  20  10
TULIA         65  84  68  86  67 /  40  40  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  82  68  85  68 /  50  50  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     66  83  68  86  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       67  81  68  84  69 /  50  60  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    69  82  70  85  70 /  70  60  40  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  84  69  89  70 /  60  70  40  30  10
SPUR          72  81  70  88  70 /  60  80  50  40  20
ASPERMONT     72  84  72  89  71 /  70  90  60  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

TXZ021>044-182100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOODING

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE
STORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PLAINS TO
RALLS TO PADUCAH. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL DIMINISH BY LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS EAST OF A
BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO TURKEY LINE MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...PLEASE RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.