Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
251 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD JUST WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ALSO CONTINUE
SLIDING DOWN LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE
A FEW DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS MORNING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. 1845Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS
SHOW SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF NEW MEXICO...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. MEANWHILE VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES 850 MB FRONT MOVING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A BAND OF DISSIPATING LOW
CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE CU
FIELD DEVELOPING FROM JUST SOUTH OF COLD FRONT NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE 850 MB FRONT. SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY.

WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SURFACE
FRONT AND OTHER BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION
AND DISTURBANCES MOVING TOWARD THE REGION...EXPECT TONIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ENHANCED CU ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED
IN COLORADO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM THIS MORNING AND TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO LATE EVENING OR NOCTURNAL
MESOSCALE SYSTEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEWD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND BUILD
UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THUS BELIEVE POPS IN THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
WITH ACTIVITY PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LAPSE RATES STEEP
ENOUGH FOR HAIL THREAT...AND SEVERE WIND THREAT AS STORM COMPLEXES
MATURE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW EACH EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TUESDAY...WITH
FURTHER WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE
POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE COULD BE
PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND
A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR KLBB AND KCDS...THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THEN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST FOR BOTH LBB AND CDS WITH THE MAIN THREAT EXPECTED BETWEEN
02Z AND 05Z AT LBB AND BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z AT CDS. WITH MOIST
GROUND...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  81  58  82  58 /  60  50  60  30  50
TULIA         57  81  59  82  58 /  60  50  50  20  40
PLAINVIEW     58  82  61  83  61 /  60  40  50  20  40
LEVELLAND     59  82  60  86  62 /  60  40  60  30  50
LUBBOCK       59  82  62  84  63 /  60  30  60  20  50
BROWNFIELD    60  84  62  88  63 /  60  30  60  30  50
CHILDRESS     63  83  64  84  63 /  50  30  40  20  30
SPUR          60  82  63  86  63 /  50  30  50  20  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  66  86  66 /  60  20  50  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

TXZ021>044-031630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

FLOODING

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...SOILS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION REMAIN
MOIST TO NEARLY SATURATED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE AREA. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

BEYOND MONDAY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW ROPESVILLE        33.49N 102.19W
06/02/2007  E70 MPH          HOCKLEY            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HAIL             LEVELLAND               33.58N 102.36W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FALLING

&&

GJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     TORNADO          7 SW JUSTICEBURG        32.97N 101.29W
06/02/2007                   GARZA              TX   STORM CHASER

            DELAYED REPORT RECIVED AT 1134 PM

&&

GJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
06/02/2007  E1.00 INCH       BAILEY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND AT WEST CAMP ON HWY
            1731

&&

GJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       BAILEY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF WEST CAMP ON HYWS
            1760 AND 1731

&&

GJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     HAIL             1 W ROPESVILLE          33.41N 102.17W
06/02/2007  E0.75 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL AT 1147

&&

GJE