Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 180456
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

MOC051-135-180505-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-071018T0515Z/
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-
1155 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONITEAU AND NORTHWESTERN 
COLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3876 9177 3866 9208 3957 9228 3967 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 269DEG 45KT 3933 9206 3873 9198

$$

MOC007-019-027-137-180515-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-071018T0515Z/
CALLAWAY MO-BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-MONROE MO-
1155 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT 
FOR WESTERN MONROE...WESTERN AUDRAIN...NORTHEASTERN BOONE AND 
CALLAWAY COUNTIES...

AT 1154 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF CENTRALIA TO NEW BLOOMFIELD...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF CENTRALIA TO 8 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF HOLTS SUMMIT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...THOMPSON...
KINGDOM CITY...FULTON...AUXVASSE AND REFORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3876 9177 3866 9208 3957 9228 3967 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 269DEG 45KT 3933 9206 3873 9198

$$

TRUETT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 180516
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

MOC007-019-027-137-180526-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0228.000000T0000Z-071018T0515Z/
CALLAWAY MO-BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-MONROE MO-
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MONROE...WESTERN
AUDRAIN...NORTHEASTERN BOONE AND WESTERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES EXPIRED AT
1215 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3876 9177 3866 9208 3957 9228 3967 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 269DEG 45KT 3933 9204 3873 9196

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
913 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.UPDATE...
GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AND JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROTATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA OVER SERN HALF OF
THE CWA IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
THAT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z.

AS EXPECTED...INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT WITH MUCAPES ONLY RUNNING
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO FALL MUCH MORE
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID-UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS INTO CWA.  IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-60KTS) AND ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVE WILL AUGMENT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TO KEEP RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LATEST SWODY1 MOVED MDT RISK INTO THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE 250-400 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH VALUES. WILL ALSO
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AS VSBY AT OBS SITES
HAVE BEEN FALLING WITH +RA...AND PRECIP H20 VALUES ARE NEAR 2
INCHES OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CWA.

STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF FRONT TOMORROW. NEW 00Z RUN OF NAM
HOLDS FRONT AND INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
21Z TOMORROW...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER IL COUNTIES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN.

BRITT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST MO. LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING, LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST IL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.

SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. 850 DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
MID TEENS C THIS MORNING ACROSS THAT REGION WITH A 40+ KT JET
EXTENDING FROM OK INTO SOUTHWEST IA. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR FOR THIS EVENING WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERENCE FORECAST ACROSS INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS RAIN FREE NOW.

UPPER SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
OF OK AND TX THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN AMPLIFYING SYSTEM
AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEB ON THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A 140-160 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER NORTHEAST MO. VIGOROUS
LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT.

THE EUROPEAN IS STRONGER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL FORECASTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER CO BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS. THE EUROPEAN KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE GFS HAS CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPLACHIANS.

TPS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
SECONDARY WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OF
KANSAS CITY TO JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBIA THEN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
NEAR SPARTA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO IOWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. AS FOR CIGS AND VSBYS...WILL BE MVFR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. THE STRONGEST BATCH
OF CONVECTION STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOU AND KUIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WINDS COULD GUST TO MORE
THAN 30 KTS IN SOME PLACES.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-181215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
IN MISSOURI AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER WEBPAGE AT (ALL LOWERCASE)...
HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT