Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 182302
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

MOC135-182312-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-070818T2300Z/
MONITEAU MO-
602 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MONITEAU COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 600 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3855 9272 3858 9243 3878 9239
      3894 9251 3870 9262

$$
TPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
406 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WRMFNT HAS BEGUN TO MV BACK NE...PULLING INSTABILITY AND TSRA CHCS
E ACR FA TNGT. FNT SHUD BE WELL E OF AREA BY SUN...BUT UNSTBL AMS
IN WAKE OF WRMFNT...AND A SERIES OF SHTWVS DRIFTING OUT OF PLAINS
...SHUD CONT TSRA CHCS INTO SUN AND SUN EVE. WENT WITH SCTD TYPE
POPS BOTH TNGT AND SUN...WITH HIEST POPS OVR W/NW AREAS OF CWA
WHERE LFT AND INSTABILITY WL BE BEST.

HV OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOER GFS SOLN FOR THE MVMT OF THE RMNTS
OF ERIN IN THE MON-MON NGT TIME FRAME. MDLS TYPICALLY MOVE THESE
SYSTEMS TOO FAST AS THEY GET PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES...AND
THIS SLOER MVMT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE GFS SO HV
UPPED POPS FROM ERYR FCSTS MORE TWD GFS POPS. EVEN THESE HIER
NUMBERS MAY BE TOO LO BUT HV OPTED TO WATCH TRENDS OF LTR MODEL
RUNS BFR ALTERING FCST TOO MUCH.

EVEN WITH THE SLOER SOLN...REMAINS OF ERIN DO APR TO ACCELERATE E
ON MON NGT AS SYS GETS CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLIES...AND WITH THIS
MVMT IT APRS THAT PCPN THRT WITH SYS SHUD END BY 12Z TUE. ALL MDLS
FCSTG A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN THE TUE-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH WESTERLIES
OVR N THIRD OF U.S AT MIDWEEK GRDLY DROPPING S AS RDGG OVR SE U.S.
WKNS...WITH A SIMILAR SWD SHIFT OF ASSOC FNTL BNDRY.  THIS GRDL
PTRN SHIFT SHUD MEAN HOT AND DRY WX ON TUE...TRENDING TWD SLGTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND INCRG PCPN CHCS FROM N TO S LATE IN THE WEEK.

CLOUDS AND PCPN SHUD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVR THE NXT FEW
DAYS AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THRU MON.
HWVR...LT SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHUD RETURN BY TUE AND HANG
ARND FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WORK WEEK AND MEDIUM RANGE MAX TEMP
GUID LOOKS GOOD DURG THIS TIME. HWVR...IT APRS THAT MOS MINS MAY
BE EXHIBITING A COOL CLIMO BIAS SO HV UPPED MINS FROM THESE
VALUES.

TEMPS SHUD BACK OFF SM BY SAT AS FNTL BNDRY...CLDS...AND
TSRA WORK INTO AREA.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SUBTLE WRMFNT EXTDS FM SFC LOW OVR SD SE THRU
CNTRL MO TO NRN AL. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BAND OF SCT TSRA
DVLP OVR CNTRL MO TWDS EVNG AND THEN SHIFT EWD WITH TIME THRU THE
CWA TGT AS THIS FNT MOVES E-NEWD. A SHRTWV TROF OVR KS WILL ALSO
BE MOVG E-NEWD THRU THE AREA TGT. MID-HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL BE
SPREADING E-NEWD THRU THE CWA AHD OF THIS SHRTWV TROF LTR THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVNG. MAY ALSO BE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTN. PLAN TO INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE TAFS EARLY THIS
EVNG...AND A PROB30 GRP OF TSRA LTR THIS EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. A S-SELY SFC WND THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG WILL GRADUALLY VEER
ARND TO A S-SWLY DIRECTION LT TGT AND SUN MRNG AS THE WK WRMFNT
LIFTS E-NE OF THE CWA.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IT NOW APPEARS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT