Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 150054
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

MOC127-205-150115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-070715T0115Z/
MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN MARION COUNTIES...

AT 750 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR EMDEN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONROE CITY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...WARREN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3995 9181 3987 9196 3968 9189 3969 9158

$$

BRITT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 150116
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
816 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

MOC127-205-150126-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-070715T0115Z/
MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
816 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN 
MARION COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 815 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

LAT...LON 3995 9181 3987 9196 3968 9189 3969 9158

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH AREAL EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE AGREEABLE MOVING A SERIES OF WEAK
VORTS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEWS IN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT
THE SFC...IT IS DIFFICULT TO COMPARE THE MODELS WITH EACH HAVING
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS IN VARYING DIRECTIONS...BUT BOTH SEEM TO
AGREE THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 BY 18Z
SUNDAY AS IT UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS IT SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM LESS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN THE GFS.

FOR TONIGHT...MLCAPES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SRN IA/NRN MO HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FARTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINT ALONG I-70 FROM STL
EWD HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S KEEPING CAPE VALUES DOWN/CIN UP.
MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING OVER NERN MO/W CNTRL IL.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ONLY WEAK ASCENT WITH VORT
WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT. ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PER SPC SWODY1 GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER OF 20-30KTS. HAIL SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SHRA/TSRA WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
SLGT CHC POPS TOMORROW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE
WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DECAYING FRONT.

AFTER A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE CHC OF TSRA
COVERING THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY GIVEN FORECAST MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY FRONT AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREFER COOLER NGM AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES BEYOND THAT ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE MIDWEST THE REST OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE TSRA WILL OCCUR AND WHETHER THE HEAT WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.  LIKE THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS FRONT NEAR THE NRN PART OF THE
CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOVES IT BACK NWD ON THURSDAY AND THEN BACK
DOWN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE SLGT CHC POPS
GOING ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTN MIXING UP ABOVE 800MB...WITH AFTN 850
TEMPS IN THE +20 TO +22C RANGE. WEAK SLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F MID-LATE WEEK...
WHICH WITH THE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTN HEAT INDICES NEAR
100F...PRIMARILY IN A CORRIDER BETWEEN COU TO STL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

BRITT/GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TSRA WATCH FOR UIN AREA. HAVE PUT TSRA IN THE
TAF FOR AN HOUR. SCT LINE HAS FORMED SO DO NOT EXPECT A LONG
EVENT. BEST THING GOING FOR THESE STORMS IS THE CAPE. RELATIVELY
WK FORCING AND SHEAR. SPC CONCERNED WITH A FEW STORMS MAY KICK OUT
SOME WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CONFERED WITH ARTCC IN OLATHE AND
DECIDED TO LEAVE TSRA OUT OF COU AND STL FOR NOW. SPC ALSO NOT
SURE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORMS WILL GO AND LAST. WL ADDRESS THIS
FOR COU AND STL/SUS FOR THE 06Z SET.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE
WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBPAGE AT
(ALL LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON SUNDAY ALONG THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX READINGS
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES