Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 101308
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
807 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

MOC051-151-101330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-070610T1330Z/
OSAGE MO-COLE MO-
807 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLE AND WESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSAGE BEND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF
JEFFERSON CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
WARDSVILLE...WESTPHALIA...TAOS...SCHUBERT AND LOOSE CREEK.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3834 9240 3833 9219 3829 9219 3839 9184
      3860 9200

$$

CARNEY

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 101324
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
823 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

MOC051-151-101333-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-070610T1330Z/
OSAGE MO-COLE MO-
823 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLE AND WESTERN
OSAGE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 830 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.  HOWEVER...THEIR STORM WAS STILL PRODUCING 
NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.  PEOPLE IN COLE AND 
OSAGE COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND STAY INDOORS AS THIS STORM 
PASSES.

LAT...LON 3834 9240 3833 9219 3829 9219 3839 9184
      3860 9200

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING THE GREAT CIRCLE ROUTE AROUND THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE RIDGE...BUT ITS CREPT BACK INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
ALREADY...AND WILL TRY TO MAKE IT BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
MISSOURI...APPARENTLY ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING EAST...AND COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP THROUGH
THE DAY...MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND ANY BOUNDARIES THAT ARE
LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL BECOME FOCI FOR
CONVECTION.  THINK MOST OF THE ACTION WILL STAY WEST OF OUR AREA
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...THOUGH SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARENT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM THE
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS BROKE OUT A RIDGE RUNNING MCS OVER NEBRASKA AND
DROPPED IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI.  IF TAKEN VERBATIM...THIS MCS
WOULD ROLL SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR ST. JOSEPH TO THE ST. LOUIS METRO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO KENTUCKY.  THE GFS PRINTS OUT
BETWEEN 3 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SWATH ALONG ITS PATH.  AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE FELT THAT THE GFS
WAS SUFFERING FROM GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND HAVE DISMISSED
THIS SOLUTION.  A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND THE SPC NMM WRF WAS
PREFERRED FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST WHICH BROKE OUT CONVECTION ON THE
LOW LEVEL JET BUT DID NOT DEVELOP AS MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  THAT
BEING SAID SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE
TROFS OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS DEEPEN WHICH BUILDS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST.  THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS PUMPING
DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.  EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
ALL TAF SITES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE VFR WITH NO PROBLEMS.
THE TOUGH ONE THIS MORNING IS COLUMBIA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO THE WEST BUT ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EAST
TO REACH KCOU. THE AIR IS DRY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND THE
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLOWL I HAVE THUNDER WITH LOCAL VSBYS
TO 3/4 MILE THERE UNTIL 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THAT UNFOLDS. BUSY WITH
OTHER PRODUCTS NOW....

PEDIGO

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARNEY