Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 012233
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

MOC151-012300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-070601T2300Z/
OSAGE MO-
533 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF LINN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...RURAL
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3831 9189 3830 9181 3835 9165 3851 9173

$$

BRITT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 012300
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

MOC151-012308-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-070601T2300Z/
OSAGE MO-
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 600 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.  THIS STRONG STORM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO 
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM.

LAT...LON 3831 9189 3830 9181 3835 9165 3851 9173

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
226 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS TIED
IN WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT. THE SURACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN WI SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO SOUTHEAST
MO.THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO QUEBEC MONDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IL AT THIS
TIME. MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NEAR CIR TO MTO WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATED THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. STABLE AIR WITH LITTLE
CAPE WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MO.

WITH THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, RAISED POPS A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE UKMET AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN
FORECASTING AN UPPER JET OF 60-80 KTS BY SATURDAY NOON THAT CURL
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIVERGENCE FROM THE
TWO MODELS IS SIMILAR AND SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIMILR BY MID
WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACORSS THE MIDWEST. LOOKS LIKE JUNE WILL BE IN
FULL BLOOM BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH 850 TEMPS OF 20C FORECAST INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING WESTERN MISSOURI DIED OUT THIS MORNING.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSED THROUGH ST. LOUIS A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO. THE AIRMASS IS STILL PRETTY UNSTABLE. SURFACE BASED AND
MU CAPES ARE UP TO 2500 TO 3000 ALREADY BUT SPC IS EXPECTING THE
SEVERE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE LIKELY NORTH IN EASTERN IOWA.  A LITTLE
LEFT OVER MVFR CEILINGS ARE LOCATED WEST OF QUINCY BUT DISSIPATING
QUICKLY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE NEW ACTIVITY FIRES UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES...AND IT MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN NEW ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI WORKS EAST INTO OUR AIRSPACE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER SO THE THREAT OF FOG IS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY.

PEDIGO

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
503 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
503 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE SEVERE
THREATS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

BRITT