Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 272035
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

MOC113-272045-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-070527T2045Z/
LINCOLN MO-
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT 
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF FOLEY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TROY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...FOLEY
AND WINFIELD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3914 9072 3910 9069 3904 9071 3900 9070
      3898 9068 3895 9068 3895 9099 3894 9102
      3912 9105 3917 9072

$$

CARNEY

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 272045
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

MOC113-272055-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-070527T2045Z/
LINCOLN MO-
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING AS IT 
MOVES EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY INTO 
CALHOUN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3914 9072 3910 9069 3904 9071 3900 9070
      3898 9068 3895 9068 3895 9099 3894 9102
      3912 9105 3917 9072

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LTL CHG IN MODEL TRENDS THIS FCST CYCLE WITH CWA FCST TO RMN IN
THE SPLIT BTWN THE N AND S BRANCHES OF THE WESTERLIES. THIS MEANS
THAT UPR LVL FTRS WL RMN ILL-DEFINED...WITH GFS ADDING EXTRA
CONFUSION BY SUPRIOUS VORT CNTRS GENERATED BY CNVTV FEEDBACK.
FORTUNATELY...GFS AND WRF/NAM RMN IN XCLNT AGREEMENT ON SFC
FTRS...WITH THE FIRST FNT AFFECTING THE AREA TDA...AND THE SECOND
APRCHG THE REGION ON WED. THESE LO LVL BNDRYS SHUD SHUD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR CNVTN IN THIS MOIST/MDTLY UNSTBL
AMS. SINCE GOING FCSTS ALREADY ARE KEYING ON THESE FTRS...MAIN
CHGS IN THIS PKG ARE ADJUSMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED AND
EXPECTED SHORT TERM TRENDS.

FIRST CDFNT JUST NOW APRCHG FAR NW COUNTIES. BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA HAS FORMED AHD OF THE FNT...PSBLY ALG OLD OUTFLO BNDRY...AND
THIS BAND CONTS TO WORK E. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER NE-SW ORIENTED BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA IS STRETCHING FROM E OZARKS INTO CNTRL IL. WHILE BOTH
OF THESE PCPN AREAS MAY DIMINISH DURG THE MRNG...THINK THAT WE
SHUD SEE REGENERATION OF CNVTN THIS AFTN OVR N HALF OF CWA ALG E-W
CNVGC ZN. THIS CNVGC MAY BE ASSOC WITH STALLED OUT CDFNT...BUT RUC
SUGGESTS IT IS MORE LIKELY ALG OUTFLO PRODUCED BY BAND OF PCPN
PRECEEDING FNT ERY TDA.

SINCE AMS IN THE WRM SECTOR RMNS WEAKLY CAPPED...ONCE AMS BCMS
SLGTLY UNSTBL CNVGC ALG BNDRY SHUD EASILY ALLOW CNVTN TO BLOSOM.
AND WITH A FOCUSING MECHANISM PRESENT COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA NR THE
BNDRY SHUD BE MUCH GTR THAN THE HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY WEVE
EXPERIENCED THE LAST 2 AFTNS...AND POPS HV BEEN ADJ ACCORDINGLY.
WITH PWATS ARND 1.5 INCHES HV ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF HVY RAIN.
ISOLD SVR THRT WL ALSO PERSIST DURG THE AFTN/EVE...MUCH LIKE THE
LAST 2 DAYS...WITH EXACT THRT DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH AMS CAN
DESTABILIZE WITH THE WDSPRD CLD COVER AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PCPN
THAT IS EXPECTED.  WL CONT THIS MENTION IN THE HWO.

CNVTN TRENDS THIS AFTN...AND RESULTANT OUTFLO BNDRYS...WL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE CVG OF PCPN INTO THE ERY EVE HRS...BUT IN
GENL EXPECT A DIURNAL LESSENING OF THE TSRA/SHRA DURG THE NXT AS
AMS STBLZ WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG.

TDAS BNDRY IS FCST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY LTR THIS AFTN AND
TNGT...SO BY MON AND TUE AMS-TYPE CNVTN WL ONCE AGAIN BCM THE
PRIMARY PCPN THRT. UNDOUBTEDLY THERE WL A CHC OF OVRNGT PCPN WITH
VRY WK UPR LVL FTRS THAT WL DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE S
PLAINS...BUT MAIN PCPN THRT SHUD BE TIED TO DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT STALLED NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. SOME MARGINAL CIGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SOUTH. PRIMARY FOCUS IS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT SOUTHEAST OF HE
CWFA OVER THE OZARKS WHERE THINNER CLOUDS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY AND
THERES BEEN MORE HEATING. STORMS ARE DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA AND I EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IM NOT SURE WELL SEE MORE THAN 30-50% AREAL
COVERAGE. CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE
OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THE STORMS
WILL DIE DOWN WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING
BEHIND ISOLATED SHOWERS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN COULD DEVELOP
SOME MARGINAL FOG LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IM NOT YET READY TO
INCLUDE ANY IN THE TERMINALS.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY AND
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE SPOTTY STORMS OF THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SOME HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI...AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS...COULD EXPERIENCE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FINALLY ENDING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY.

THIS PERSISTENT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRODUCED BY THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO AID IN THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...OR HEAVY
RAIN THAT THEY OBSERVE.

TRUETT