Flood Watch 4, NWS St. Louis, MO

Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Pike County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Marion County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Warren County, MO

000 
WGUS63 KLSX 010958
FFALSX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS HAS BEEN CENCELLED...

.A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL DRIVE A LINE OF
FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER DRYER AIR WILL SPREAD IN RIGHT BEHIND THESE
STORMS AND LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR EXTENSIVE RAINFALL.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-
041-042-047>052-059>065-011100-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-CALHOUN IL-
JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-SHELBY-
MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM...
QUINCY...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...
COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY...ST CHARLES...UNION...
ST LOUIS
358 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAS BEEN LESS THAN
ONE INCH. SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH A FEW IN FLOOD
BUT THE RAINS THAT OCCUR THIS MORNING SHOULD NOT SUBSTANTIALLY
AGGRIVATE THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

PEDIGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
158 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT
INTO THURS. MDLS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR
THIS SYSTEM. SFC LOW OVER TX PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NEWD
INTO NE MO BY 12Z THU..THEN INTO NE IA BY 00Z FRI. ASSOCIATED CDFNT
WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA FROM ABOUT 10Z THRU 19Z
THURSDAY...ENDING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AND BRINGING IN A COLD
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.

SPC HAS UPGRADED RISK TO MODERATE FOR CENTRAL MO TONIGHT...THEN
MODERATE FOR ENTIRE CWA BEGINNING 12Z THU. STRONG WAA AND NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROF WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSRA
TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. MUCAPE PROGD 500 TO 1100 J/KG AND OVER 60 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL GROWTH WITH INITIAL ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

THEN WILL SEE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...FIRE UP OVER WRN MO BY 11Z...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE AS DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGLY
FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. SO COULD SEE TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY.

ONE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
GROUND OVER CWA REMAINS SATURATED/PARTIALLY FROZEN. EXPECT OVER AN
INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. SO WILL
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF A CRAWFORD COUNTY MO TO
RANDOLPH COUNTY IL LINE FROM 00Z TONIGHT TO 00Z FRIDAY.

ONCE FRONT EXITS AREA...WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. ALSO...WILL SEE WINDS PICKUP AS WELL
WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY.

AS FOR REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERY FEW CHANGES TO FCST. HAVE
KEPT FCST DRY ATTM WITH RIDGE MOVING INTO AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CDFNT MOVING INTO AREA ON TUE. HOWEVER...AM KEEPING FCST DRY
DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM COMING TOGETHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DEEPENING SFC LOW FCST TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS INTO NW MO BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO IOWA ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE REPLACED BY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND TRANSPORTS DEEPER MOISTURE NWD.
A PERIOD OR TWO OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONTAINING HAIL..ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING SOME TIME AFTER 03Z IN RESPONSE
TO LIFT VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A LINE...ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE LIFTING SFC LOW
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

GLASS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-
     GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-
     MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.

IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON
     IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
123 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-011245-
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-
PIKE-
123 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT IS LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE
HAIL THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST
LIKELY DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE EVENING.

RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN NEW OR CONTINUED
RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
SEE STLFLWLSX...STLFLSLSX OR STLESFLSX FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM CENTER AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ041-042-047>052-
059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-
MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-
OSAGE-CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-
FRANKLIN-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
123 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT IS LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL THEN MOVE INTO MIDDLE
MISSOURI SOMETIME BETWEEN 300 AM AND 600 AM.

RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN NEW OR CONTINUED
RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
SEE STLFLWLSX...STLFLSLSX OR STLESFLSX FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70
MPH AND TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE
TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG WITH LONG TRACKS. A MIX MODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FEATURING BOTH A RAPIDLY MOVING SQUALL LINE AND DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT DAWN ON THURSDAY
AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND BE
LOCATED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT MIDDAY THURSDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM CENTER AND COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

GLASS