Wind Advisory 127, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. GOOD
NORTHWEST WIND EVENT GOING ON NOW AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THEN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER UTAH AND NEVADA
TONIGHT AND SUN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, FAVORING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF VENTURA AND WESTERN PORTION OF LA COUNTIES.
THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 60-80 MPH AND
WARNINGS CERTAINLY LOOK VALID. THE USUAL CAVEATS EXIST WITH THESE
WARNINGS AS PROBABLY 70 PERCENT OR MORE OF ZONE 41 WILL BE WELL
BELOW WARNING LEVELS, AND MOST OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AS WELL,
HOWEVER OTHER AREAS IN THOSE ZONES WILL BE EXPERIENCING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WINDS. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS
TO EXTEND IT ANOTHER 24 HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE. THE PEAK OF THE EVENT WILL
BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER I THINK WE WILL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND QUITE POSSIBLY WARNING LEVEL INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

PRETTY SAFE TO SAY THAT TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE RECORDS ARE AROUND 100 AND THAT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO BEAT, AT LEAST
SUN AND MON. TUES IS PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE AT BREAKING RECORDS AS
NOT ONLY WILL THE TEMPS BE WARMER BUT THE RECORDS ARE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER IN GENERAL. AS IS TYPICAL WITH A STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT WITH
GOOD THERMAL PACKING, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE THE WARMEST FOR THE
FIRST DAY OR TWO BEFORE INLAND AREAS START TAKING OVER.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW AND A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT LEAST THROUGH
THU. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, AND BY THU AFTERNOON STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

BEYOND THU THE MODELS ARE IN TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT TO REALLY SPEAK
WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING YET ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO SAT. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS
WAY OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW AND ACTUALLY MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WARM AIR
MASS OVER SO CAL. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL SO
FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED A COOLING TREND BUT NOTHING MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1730Z...OR 1030 PDT...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CLEAR SKIES
OVER KLAX AND KBUR WILL PERSIST. STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER AND LEE VICINITY OF THE
TRANSVERSE RANGE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUN
MORNING. N OR NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT
WHILE NE FLOW AROUND 30KT MAY DEVELOP AT 1KFT OVER KLAX AROUND
SUNRISE SUN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...FORWOOD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
207 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-211300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
207 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST AS WELL AS THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE AFFECTED WITH
DANGEROUS WESTERLY WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE BLOWING SAND AND DUST
BRINGING VISIBILITY DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. OUTER WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL COULD EXPERIENCE SOME LOCAL GALE FORCE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO AFFECT THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM RINCON POINT IN
VENTURA COUNTY TO SAN MATEO POINT IN SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THERE
IS ALSO CONCERN THAT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES
OF 3 TO 5 FEET COULD IMPACT AVALON HARBOR DURING THIS EVENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET...WITH MAXIMUM SETS TO 15
FT...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ALL OF
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH POSSIBLE IN WINDIEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WIND PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME
WIND PRONE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 60 MPH INCLUDING THE
HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF PACIFIC PALISADES TO
MALIBU. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE VALID FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR ANTELOPE VALLEY. FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES AS WELL. GALE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OUTER WATERS AND LOCALLY ACROSS
THE WIND PRONE AREAS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AVALON HARBOR AND
NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES AND HARBORS OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE
IS ALSO CONCERN THAT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES
OF 3 TO 5 FEET COULD IMPACT AVALON HARBOR DURING THIS EVENT SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET...WITH MAXIMUM SETS TO 15
FT...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FIRE WEATHER WATCH.........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD