Frost Advisory 1, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PST FRI JAN 12 2007

...VERY COLD THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE...

...FREEZE WARNINGS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...STILL ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SOME AREAS.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN ALL AREAS AS WELL. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS...WHERE TEMPS WILL
FALL RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ALREADY DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS...AND IN THE MID 30S IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SHELTERED AREAS WILL DIP TO 28 DEGREES OR
BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR
DETAILS. VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO IN STORE FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. SEVERAL RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER THE DISTRICT. GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED OFFSHORE AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT.

BROAD...COLD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU SAT...THEN
MOVE E THRU SUN WITH A BROAD NW TO N FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT WITH THE UPPER FEATURES SUN AS IT DEVELOPS AN INSIDE
SLIDER UPPER TROF AND MOVES IT TO SERN CA FOR SUN. THE GFS KEEPS AN
E-W ELONGATED TROF OVER SRN CA THRU MON WHILE THE NAM BUILDS A RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE DISTRICT.
EITHER SOLUTION WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING OFFSHORE CANYON
WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL...AND VERY COLD
AT NIGHT WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THRU MON...BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
GUSTY NE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS
SHOULD BE MONDAY THROUGH TUE.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER SO CAL ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP NARROW TROUGH
BEGINNING TO DROP PARALLEL TO THE WASHINGTON THROUGH NO CAL COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN THE COAST...IT
BECOMES CUTOFF AND AT THIS TIME SHOWS A GOOD POSITION OF THE CENTRAL
COAST TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS. BUT SO CAL IS OVERDUE FOR SOME DECENT PRECIP.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE COOLER WITH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH LLWS A POSSIBLE ISSUE
AT KBUR AND KVNY BY SAT MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KAPLAN
AVIATION...SIRARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1212 PM PST FRI JAN 12 2007

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-131400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
1212 PM PST FRI JAN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND FROM
TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. FROST ADVISORIES MAY EVEN BE NEEDED FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS AT THIS POINT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND
AGAINSATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
ISAGAIN LIKELY ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES...THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS. FROST ADVISORIES MAY EVEN BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
LOS ANGELES COUNTY.THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CREATE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHLAND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND PROLONGED
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CREATING YET
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS AND THE COASTAL STRIP NEAR
MALIBU. STRONGEST OFFSHORE PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN LOWER A BIT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER TO NEAR 10 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FIRE WEATHER WATCH.........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KAPLAN