Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT LIES FROM JUST NORTH OF MOLINE EAST OT JUST NORTH OF
CHICAGO AT 20 UTC. THIS WILL BE A CONVERGENCE LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AFTER THE SUN SETS THE STABILITY MAY INCREASE AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PASS SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
100 PM CDT

FOR THE 1800 UTC TAFS...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD
FRONT AT 17Z EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ACCELERATED DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH ORD IN THE 21Z-22Z TIME
FRAME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THIS FRONT TRACK SOUTHWARD. FACTORS FAVORING
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH 100 HPA ML CAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. FACTORS WHICH MAY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION
INCLUDE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RATHER ILL DEFINED MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS
TERMINALS IN THE 21Z-24Z FRAME WITH THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH WEAKENING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND
FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS FOR
ORD/MDW/GYY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS AT DPA/RFD ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE...BUT LIKELY FAVORING NORTH.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TOMORROW MORNING AS
SFC PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW.

MARSILI

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM CDT
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4
INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THIS EVENING.  THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS
EASTERN ONTATIO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING DOWN THE LAKE
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY.  AFTER THE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

GITRO
&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1150 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
092130-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
1150 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007/1250 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA AFTER 2 PM CDT OR 3 PM EDT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO
THE ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BORDER. A LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
MAY MOVE WEST TOWARDS ROCKFORD. THESE TWO FRONTS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO INITIATE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING.  WITH
STRONGER WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE MORE COVERAGE AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-766-092130-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL-
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN-GARY INDIANA TO BURNS HARBOR-
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
LAKE MICHIGAN, WINTHROP HARBOR IL EASTWARD TO THE MID-
POINT OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWARD TO MICHIGAN CITY MI BEYOND 5 NM
OFFSHORE-
430 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

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