Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

.MESO UPDATE...

REMOVED FIVE COUNTIES FROM OUR NWRN CWA FROM WATCH NUMBER 126.
COULD PROBABLY REMOVE MOST COUNTIES THE NEXT HOUR. ALSO ISSUED
SECOND SVR WATCH...NUMBER 127...FOR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES OF
HARRISON...NICHOLAS...BOURBON AND CLARK.

THREAT CONTINUES FOR ERN PORTIONS OF WATCH NUMBER 126 AND ALL OF
127. THIN AREA OF SFC LIS TO -3 AND -4 ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
INSTABILITY SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT UNTIL
THEN...HAIL AND HIGH WIND THREATS CONTINUE...AT LEAST THROUGH 930
PM EDT.

AL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TNGT AND THU)...

FOCUS ON LATE AFTN/EVE STORMS. CURRENT STORMS WILL NOT LIKELY BE
BOXED ACRS OUR FA...NO MCD/WORD FROM SPC UP TO NOW...HOWEVER BKN
LINE FORMING FROM CNTRL IL INTO SRN IL TO NEAR PAH MAY BE BOXED
LATER PER MCD DISCUSSION 457.

UPR LO/NEG TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM SERN IA INTO THE LOWER OH VLY
ATTM WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN IL 990 LO INTO FAR WKY. STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LIFTED INDICES OF -6 AND CAPES OF 500-1000
J/KG UPSTREAM IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF BNDRY. BNDRY FCST TO MOVE THRU
SDF AND BWG BY ARND 00Z AND LEX ARND 02Z. NMRS TSTMS OVER OUR FA
ATTM IN AREA OF DEEP ASCENT FUELED BY APPROACHING 100KT JET STREAK
(LEFT EXIT REGION) APPROACHING ATTM. WIND FIELDS STRONG AT ALL
LEVELS AND INCREASING. MODE OF CNVCTN SHUD BE MULTICELL LINEAR WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH WIND/HAIL AS PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADO
THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE N OF OUR FA...ALONG NWD MOVG WMFNT.

NAM-WRF INDICATE SVR THREAT SHUD BE OVER BY ARND 01Z FOR SDF AND 03Z
FOR LEX. STORMS ACRS OUR FA ATTM...WELL ADVERTISED...WITH MORE
STORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT THIS EVE...MAINLY
ACRS OUR NRN FA. A WATCH MAY ACCOMPANY THESE.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NMRS STORMS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...BECOMING SCT SHWRS AFTER FROPA. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL PRIMARILY ACRS OUR NRN FA THRU THU AS UPR LO MOVES ACRS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SFC WINDS BECOME WLY. FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED S
AND W CWA THU.

MOS TEMPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FCST...NO CHANGES.

KIRKPATRICK

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE LONGER TERM WILL START OUT ON A QUITE NOTE WEATHERWISE AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT ALL OR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.

THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY
AND MOVE EAST WESTERN TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT. A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE  NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE INCREASE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY. THE AIR
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ON SATURDAY AND WILL ADD A CHANCE OF
THUNDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WINDS-UP INTO A
EAST COAST STORM....THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTH OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF KENTUCKY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR NOW. THE CURRENT TRACK FOR THIS LOW
WILL TAKE TO FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE THE ONE COMING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW STAYING FARTHER
SOUTH...THE AIR WILL BE MORE STABLE AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

SCHOLZ

AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

HAVE TO DEAL WITH SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...BECAUSE OF SOME REALLY COLD AIR
ALOFT. THEN LATER TONIGHT SOME COLD AIR SC WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. WILL TREND IT
IN LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY SO WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TAF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SVR TSTORM WATCH 126 UNTIL 11 PM EDT. SVR TSTORM WATCH 127
     UNTIL 1 AM EDT.
IN...SVR TSTORM WATCH 126 UNTIL 11 PM EDT EAST OF ORANGE AND
     CRAWFORD COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-120830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT) WED APR 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE THREAT FOR STORMS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY AROUND 9 PM EDT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOW...THE AIR WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY UPDATES.

DK/MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
659 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             CRESTWOOD               38.34N 85.48W
04/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

KYZ033-112330-
HENRY-
706 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE...

AT 701 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW CASTLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
CARROLLTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35
TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

INZ090>092-KYZ024-025-027>034-038-045-053-062-063-071-073-074-
120115-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-GRAYSON KY-
HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-
SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-LARUE KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
WARREN KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...
LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...
BARDSTOWN...HODGENVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW
713 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007 /613 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007/

THUNDERSTORMS WERE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY STRETCHED ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. FROM ELIZABETHOWN NORTH...WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FROM MUNDFORDSVILLE SOUTH...MOSTLY MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
725 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSVILLE             38.39N 85.92W
04/11/2007                   FLOYD              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PINE TREES DOWN...SNAPPED OFF. POLE BARN DOOR RIPPED OFF.

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
731 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEITCHFIELD             37.48N 86.29W
04/11/2007                   GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WALMART SIGN...UNKNOWN SIZE...BLOWN ON CAR. TREES DOWNED
            AND BLOCKING SEVERAL ROADS.

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
742 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKS                  38.07N 85.72W
04/11/2007                   BULLITT            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND SIDING BLOWN OFF A HOUSE

&&

LD