Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WWUS53 KLMK 032304
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
704 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYC073-032315-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-070403T2315Z/
FRANKLIN KY-
704 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 658 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKFORT...OR ABOUT
18 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION UNIT AT THE FRANKFORT AIRPORT 
REPORTED A 68 MPH WIND GUST AT 658 PM EDT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWITZER BY 710 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3835 8497 3825 8501 3812 8503 3811 8489
      3816 8483 3820 8474 3834 8476

$$

JARVIS

000 
WWUS53 KLMK 032315
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYC073-032325-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-070403T2315Z/
FRANKLIN KY-
715 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 715 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3835 8497 3825 8501 3812 8503 3811 8489
      3816 8483 3820 8474 3834 8476

$$

JARVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.UPDATE...

DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW SEVERE T-STORM WATCH
ACROSS OUR SWRN AND SRN CWA. THIS LATTER WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 02Z.

WCN ALREADY OUT...ZFP OUT SHORTLY.

AL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

..SEVERE STORMS THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER...

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...

CLEARLY THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS SVR WX THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BKN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR IND TO
STL TO SGF...WHILE AHEAD OF THIS PCPN HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY WITH
LIMITED BL MOISTURE E OF I-65 AND SOME MODEST CAPPING INDICATED
EARLIER IN ACARS DATA. ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH IS WELL
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN WE EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...HEADING MORE IN A NE DIRECTION ALONG THE 0-6KM MEAN
WIND. PER LATEST RUC...STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY BY AROUND
21Z...SO EXPECTING MORE OF A MOTION TOWARD THE LMK CWA BY THAT TIME.
CURRENT MOTIONS WOULD PLACE SQ LINE INTO WRN COUNTIES (DUBOIS)
AROUND 21Z...HEADING INTO SDF/BWG AREAS AROUND 23Z...AND INTO THE
ERN COUNTIES AROUND 0-1Z THIS EVE.

OF COURSE THESE PROJECTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FLUID...AND DO NOT ACCOUNT
FOR ANY SCT CELLS THAT MAY POP UP AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN ENHANCED CU FIELD CURRENTLY PRESENT FROM OWB-HOP.
ANOTHER ITEM TO CONSIDER IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
BEHIND MAIN SQ LINE...AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE SOME TSRA DEVELOPING OVER NRN MO CLOSER TO THE SFC
FRONT...WHICH GIVES SOME CREDIBILITY TO THIS IDEA.

PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP PROMOTE COLD POOL GENERATION/
BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND THREAT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH (11.5KFT) SO HAIL THREAT IS THERE WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
TORNADO THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SHOULD WINDS BACK AHEAD OF
CONVECTION THAT WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY/TORNADO
POTENTIAL...AND OF COURSE WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS SPIN-UPS ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN KY WE COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CELLS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS
AFTN-EARLY EVE...RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL.

LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT SFC COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE CWA
BY 6Z OR SO...ENDING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. LOW LEVEL RH
CLEARS OUT QUITE RAPIDLY POST-FROPA...LEADING TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES. POST-FRONTAL MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE GUSTY W/NW
WINDS TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
QUITE COOL AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY. FOLLOWED LATEST RUC FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS WED ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S
SRN IND TO THE LOWER 40S IN SRN KY. ALMOST A 30-35 DEGREE CHANGE
FROM THIS AFTN TO WEDNESDAY AFTN. IMPRESSIVE

CS

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

..MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL MARK AN ABRUPT END TO THE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO. UPPER
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TONIGHTS FROPA WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND
ELONGATED OVER THE NERN CONUS/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT
SPINS...NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE WILL HELP PUMP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION DURING THIS WHOLE TIME PERIOD. LOOK FOR
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH AVERAGE LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE VALUES ARE SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN AROUND THE REGION...THE
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD AFFECT VEGETATION. MORNING LOWS
EXPECTED FROM THURS-FRI COULD YIELD TEMPS AROUND 30 DEGREES...THUS
SUPPORTING FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAT-SUN MORNING LOWS LOOK A TAD
COOLER WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WHICH WOULD PERHAPS
SUPPORT FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA. THESE PRODUCTS WOULD NOT BE ISSUED
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY SO STAY TUNED...

OVERALL OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A DRY NW FLOW...SO NO PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW DROPS OF QPF
MAINLY NE OF OUR AREA UNDER THE UPPER LOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THAT OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE SPINNING OVER
QUEBEC...AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MORE ELONGATED LOOK. THE ELONGATION
IS WORTH MENTIONING AS ITS WESTWARD EXTENT BECOMES A SHORT WAVE OF
ENERGY ROTATING DOWN FROM MANITOBA ON SUNDAY...MUCH LIKE A
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN OUR VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS-MIDDLE TEENS. HOWEVER HPC STILL SHOWS SLT CHC POPS
ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS FAR OUT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT FOR MORE
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT ANY SHOWER CHC IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES AS THEY DO NOT SHOW
ANY PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER TUESDAY.

ALSO BY THIS TIME...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

AL

AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN-EVE. BEFORE THAT
GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS EXPECTED...
ALONG WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS.

BASED ON MOTIONS OF UPSTREAM TSRA OVER MO/IL...AND ACCOUNTING FOR
SOME ACCELERATION GIVEN WE ARE ANTICIPATING BOWING STRUCTURES...MAIN
THREAT FOR SQ AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE AROUND/AFTER 21Z AT SDF...23Z
BWG...AND LEX 0-1Z. THOUGH THESE TIMES ARE CERTAINLY FLEXIBLE...AND
DO NOT FACTOR IN ANY SCT CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN
LINE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN ENHANCED CU FIELD CURRENTLY PRESENT
FROM EVV-HOP. WILL INCLUDE A 3HR TEMPO GROUP AT HIGHEST THREAT
INCLUDING STRONG WINDS/REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS.

AFTER CONVECTION ROLLS THROUGH...SFC COLD FRONT WILL SOON FOLLOW
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CS

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-040830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
342 PM EDT (242 PM CDT) TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

...SEVERE STORMS THEN TURNING COLDER...

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BASED ON CURRENT STORM TRENDS...THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER ROUGHLY 4 PM EDT. LOCATIONS IN AND
AROUND LOUISVILLE HAVE THE HIGHEST THREATS FOR SEVERE STORMS AROUND
OR AFTER 5 PM EDT...NEAR BOWLING GREEN AROUND OR AFTER 5 PM
CDT...AND THE LEXINGTON AND COLUMBIA AREAS AROUND OR AFTER 7 PM EDT.
NOTE THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE.

STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND HIGHER...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN THESE LINES OF STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT ARE ALREADY
GROWING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE PROTECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT SHOULD
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
ON THE INTERNET FOR UPDATES. SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BY
CALLING OUR SPOTTER PHONE LINE...OR VIA OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

CS/AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORYDON                 38.21N 86.13W
04/03/2007                   HARRISON           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE INCH DIAMETER LIMBS BROKEN OFF OF TREES

&&

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N HIGHGROVE           38.01N 85.48W
04/03/2007  E60 MPH          SPENCER            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
638 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>048-056-032330-
ANDERSON-BOURBON-FAYETTE-FRANKLIN-GARRARD-HARRISON-JESSAMINE-MERCER-
NICHOLAS-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WOODFORD-
638 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HEADING INTO THE BLUEGRASS...

AT 633 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CARROLLTON TO 28 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH PER
HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...PENNY TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

BASED ON THEIR CURRENT SPEED...THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR FRANKFORT BY 700 PM EDT.
  NEAR LAWRENCEBURG BY 710 PM EDT.
  NEAR VERSAILLES BY 720 PM EDT.
  NEAR CYNTHIANA BY 725 PM EDT.
  NEAR HARRODSBURG BY 735 PM EDT.
  NEAR PARIS BY 740 PM EDT.

TRAVELERS ALONG I-64 WEST OF LEXINGTON WILL ENCOUNTER THESE STORMS.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL IS OCCURING WITH THIS STORM.
PREPARE NOW BY MOVING YOUR CAR TO A GARAGE...AND GOING INDOORS UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             ENGLISH                 38.33N 86.46W
04/03/2007  E1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORIOLE                  38.17N 86.50W
04/03/2007                   PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT WASHINGTON        38.05N 85.55W
04/03/2007                   BULLITT            KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNED TREES BLOCKING ROADS JUST WEST OF MOUNT WASHINGTON
            WITH 60 MILE AN HOUR WIND GUSTS

&&

RL