Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
615 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

.MESO UPDATE (615 PM EDT)...

AS EXPECTED...TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A DEFINITIVE LINE ALONG THE
OH RIVER AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOL HAVE CONGEALED. SMALL
BOWING SEGMENT CURRENTLY OVER MEAD COUNTY TO FT KNOX WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST S OF HEAVY RAIN. REPORT OF TREES DOWN AND UP TO 60-70
MPH WINDS IN VALLEY STATION IN WRN JEFFERSON COUNTY KY...AND TREES
DOWN AND 50 MPH WINDS IN MT WASHINGTON IN BULLITT COUTNY WITH THIS
LINE.

ALTHOUGH AIR MASS S OF CONVECTION IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND
THIS IS GETTING FARTHER AWAY FROM BEST FORCING...LARGE SFC TEMP
DIFFERENCE (DENSITY DISCONTINUITY) EXISTS BETWEEN RAIN COOLED AIR
AND UNTAPPED AIR TO S OF LINE. THUS...CONVECTIVE COLD POOL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CREATE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND FEED ON/SURGE SWD ON
THIS DISCONTINUITY AXIS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL AND
CNTRL KY NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

TWF

.MESO UPDATE (525 PM EDT)...

TSTMS OVER SRN INDIANA HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR WITH A COUPLE
REPORTS OF AROUND 30 MPH SFC WINDS WITH STRONGEST CELLS. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING STORMS STARTING TO CONGEAL AS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS/COLD POOL STARTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BASE
VELOCITY DATA SHOWING GRADUALLY INCREASING INBOUND WINDS ALOFT OVER
PARTS OF ERN DUBOIS SRN ORANGE AND WRN/NRN CRAWFORD COUNTIES. LATEST
LAPS/MSAS SFC DATA SHOWING WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER SRN INDIANA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO ITS SOUTH. SYNOPTICALLY...WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MO MOVING SEWD WITH HIGHER JET WINDS OVER NRN IL
TO NRN OH...WHICH SHOULD AID IN LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR CONTINUATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION.

BASED ON LATEST ENVIRONMENTAL/RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS THEY SLOWLY PROPAGATE SEWD INTO N-CNTRL AND
E-CNTRL KY OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPSS TO HANDLE
STRONG STORMS FOR NOW AND MONITOR IF UPGRADE TO WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

TWF

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

FOCUS WILL BE ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR ALL OF
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 JOULES AND
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25 KNOTS...MAIN THREAT FROM SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FROM WET
MICROBURSTS...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

AT 2 PM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR CINCINNATTI...WITH A
WIND SHIFT LINE INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
BLUEGRASS REGION.

WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...A BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION IS NOW STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF EVANSVILLE TO EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WRF AND MESO-NAM BOTH DEVELOP
THIS LINE AND MOVES THEM SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

WILL PROBABLY KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENING...INCREASING THEM TO
LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR MIDNIGHT. SHOULD THIS LINE
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.
IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE 25KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS...A VERY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT AND POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THREAT TO RAPIDLY DECREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
ACROSS INDIANA...BUT LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINTS
WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 50S. EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND FEEL SHARPLY LESS HUMID
TOMORROW. JSD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

COMPARED TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE EXTENDED IS A YAWNER.  WITH
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...LOCAL AIR
CONDITIONERS SHOULD GET A BREAK AS DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE HOWEVER...MAX
TEMPS WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...FROM LOWER 80S
ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 90 AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER
TO RISE THOUGH...SO INCREASE IN HEAT INDICES WILL LAG UNTIL LATER IN

MOST QUESTIONABLE PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BEYOND TUESDAY AS
EUROPEAN MODEL HINTING AT A RETROGRADING LOW INTO SOUTHEAST U.S.
DGEX BUILDS EXPANSIVE RIDGE IN FROM WEST INSTEAD...AND IS PREFERRED
ATTM...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE TIME FRAME IS...SO ONLY
ISOLATED POPS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.
SOME STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE RANDOM...BUT EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AT SDF AND LEX AFTER 21Z AS A LINE OF STORMS
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITHIN THIS LINE. CIGS AND
VIS WILL BE IFR WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS WILL END AFTER 01Z AT SDF...AND 05Z AT BWG. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTH BY EARLY TOMORROW. INITIALLY...CIGS BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.   JSD

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-200930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
341 PM EDT (241 PM CDT) THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED RUNOFF
PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ANY AREAS WHERE REPEATED STORMS OCCUR.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
638 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

INZ090-091-KYZ030-031-033>035-200015-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-
FRANKLIN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...LOUISVILLE...
LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT
638 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 800 PM EDT. THESE STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

KYZ040-041-048-192330-
FAYETTE-JESSAMINE-WOODFORD-
649 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FAYETTE...JESSAMINE AND
WOODFORD COUNTIES...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
VERSAILLES TO VERSAILLES TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF VERSAILLES...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN TO 14 MILES WEST OF
LEXINGTON TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR NICHOLASVILLE BY 655 PM EDT.
  NEAR SPEARS BY 705 PM EDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEAVENWORTH             38.20N 86.35W
07/19/2007                   CRAWFORD           IN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 66

&&

13

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