Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY):..
WK BUT SIGNIFICANT 500 MB CIRCULATION THAT AFFECTED FA DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS INITIALLY ROTATED WEST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DRIFTED NORTHWARD
INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE ARE GETTING SOME HEIGHT RISES AND
A LITTLE WARMER AIR ALOFT...A BETTER CAPPING...SO LESS TSTM ACTIVITY
THAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL GO WI 20 TO 30 PCT POPS FOR EVE
AND EARLY NIGHT TRW TONIGHT AND SIMILAR POPS FOR AFTN TRW AGAIN ON
WED. LOWEST POPS TO THE EAST.

WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY...LESS CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. WE LIKE THE MAV TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THESE ARE MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST PROJECTIONS. --21

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THRU TUESDAY)...

WELL...LONG TERM PACKAGE CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT
ON THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN WE WILL SLOWLY LOOSE THE CLOUD
COVER...AND COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN MOVES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN IT HEATS UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL USED THE AVN AND
ECM...AND ONLY MAJOR ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL SPEED AND TIMING.

.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PICK UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND BRING THE
MOST ORGANIZED CONCENTRATION OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA IN A LONG
TIME.  THE DIFFICULTY IN THIS FORECAST IS MODELS TIMING OF THE
FRONT.  THE 12 AVN TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...WHICH HAS
HUGE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE QPF...POPS...CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ETC.  WE
HAVE POPS IN WED NIGHT. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
PACKAGE MAY WANT TO LOWER POPS CHANCES LATE WED AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

NEW MEX NUMBERS PICKING UP ON CATEGORICAL POPS THU AND FRI...BUT I
HAVE MY DOUBTS BASED ON THE FRONTAL ZONE POSITION. THE MRH LAYERS
ARE VERY SATURATED WHICH IS NO SURPRISE CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL
PLUME OVER THE LONE STAR STATE WHICH IS PUSHED UP NORTHWARD.

COORDINATED WITH IND...JKL...PAH...AND ILN TO BEGAN THU AM WITH HIGH
CHC POPS OVER SRN IN AND NOTHING OVER FAR SE CWA...AND SLOWLY PUSHED
THIS S AND E THROUGH TIME. BIGGEST CHANGE IS INCREASING THE LIKELY
POPS THU NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 1ST PART OF FRIDAY
AM. THEN SLOWLY...AND I DO MEAN SLOWLY TRANSITION PRECIP FROM THE
OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH PWS ON THU AND FRI...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ALBEIT...SOIL CAN EASILY HANDLE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN WITHOUT MUCH GROUND WATER PROBLEMS DUE TO DROUGHT.

TEMPS ON THU AND FRI WILL BE CHALLENGING...AS I RAISED THE SKY GRIDS
INTO THE HIGH M/CLOUDY AND OVC RANGE.  BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE TOO
WARM ON THU WITH THE CLOUD COVER...AND ARE IN THE BALL PARK ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW 80S. WENT 2 DEGREES BELOW MOS ON THU.

.SAT AND SUN...

CWA LOOKS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND....WITH SUNDAY BEING THE BEST DAY WITH
M/SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WITH 1025MB HIGH MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF HUDSON BAY. DEW POINTS BACK TO THE UPPER 50S...WHICH IS A
GOOD DEAL FOR THE TAIL END OF JUNE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVER
THE WEEKEND AND VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. COULD SEE A NW
FLOW MCS...OVER SE MO AND WRN KY....BUT WORST CASE SCENARIO IS
INCREASED CLOUD OVER SAT OVER FAR SW CWA. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS COULD
SEE THE HISTORICALLY COLD SPOTS LIKE MARROWBONE INTO THE UPPER 50S
THIS WEEKEND.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH 591 M HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS...AND BUILD
EASTWARD. SO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
NOTHING DRASTIC.

JDG
&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION (18Z TAFS):...

500 MB CIRCULATION SHIFTED FROM SWRN IN WESTWARD INTO SCTRL IL
OVERNIGHT. NOT ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PREVENT A CONTINUED AND
PRIMARILY DIURNAL PCPN THREAT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FA.

SCT TO BKN VFR CU AND AC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT PRIMARILY
AFT AND EARLY NIGHT TRW. OVERNIGHT A PROBLEM WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
SHALLOW GF BWG ESPECIALLY IF THEY GET A SHOWER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SDF AND LEX.
--21

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
325 PM EDT (225 PM CDT) TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD END BY OR DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ENDING BY EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

--21

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