Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
202 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF LMK FORECAST AREA. MAIN
ISSUE WITH THIS AREA IS REDUCED VSBSY - 2SM BEING THE COMMON
REDUCTION FM FTK TO SDF AND LOU...WITH CIGS DOWN TO 020 AS WELL.
ANOTHER AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO SDF BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE AREA TO SOUTH OF THE LARGE PRECIPITATION
SWATH...WHERE THINNING/CLEARING CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED DESTABILIZATION
TO BEGIN.  TSRA ALONG AND SOUTH OF TN BORDER AREA STARTING TO
DEVELOP SINCE 17Z.  THESE SHOULD EXPAND AND MOVE INVOF BWG BY
23Z...WITH WIND AND HAIL MORE OF A THREAT THAN FARTHER N.  OTHER
THAN SOME DEVELOPING CU...LEX SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT THE LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF BWG IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE E THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH LEX OVERNIGHT.

JBS

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

.UPDATED 1430Z...

PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON INDIANA SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
REDEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL KEEP PREVENT MUCH WARM-UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE EDGED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT...ALONG WITH INCREASING POPS.  UNLESS CLOUDS START TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE MORE...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO
THIRSTY VEGETATION.

JBS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

06Z INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE SOME COOLING TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION GOING SO WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE LOCALLY RUN WRF INDICATE INCREASED
CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65. WE WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY TODAY BUT
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40% OVER THE WEST... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR STL.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WE WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST.  --JA

.IN THE EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE WEATHER REGIME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY CAN BE BROKEN DOWN INTO TWO PERIODS. HOT AND HUMID MONDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING ON THURSDAY TO A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEAR AS STRONG RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THIS
EASTERN RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EVEN FARTHER...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
TO MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND INDIANA. NIGHTS WILL BECOME MUGGY AND LOWS
MAY STAY AT OR ABOVE 70 THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

WILL CONTINUE ONGOING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF AN INHIBITING
CAP...SOME CAPE...AND BASICALLY A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.75 INCHES AND THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY CELLS MAY BRING
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS. EXPECT THAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A
DIMINISHED THREAT FOR STORMS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF STRENGTHENING RIDGE
OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...RECENT SPOTTY RAINS AND OUR HUMID AIRMASS SHOULD
PREVENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK BEGINS TO FORM WITH RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN FRONT
RANGE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE WELL WITH THIS.
WITH THIS DEVELOPING BLOCK...DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH TRYING TO TIME A COLD FRONT
IS TRICKY THIS FAR OFF...AS OF NOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.

PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING
FORECAST OF 40 POPS THURSDAY...DECREASING BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY
EARLY SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SWITCH OUR WINDS TO THE NORTH.  JSD

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-242000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1228 PM EDT (1128 AM CDT) SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 3/4
INCH...ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN
KENTUCKY PARKWAY.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.  PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
COOL FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THOSE
STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD LATE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

JA/JSD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>