Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE BATCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHILE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS NOTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING OUR LOCAL WRF RUN
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.  THIS COULD BE A SIGNAL FROM
THE MODEL BRINGING IN UPSTREAM CONVECTION.  OUR LOCAL WRF RUN
SUGGEST BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM BWG NE THROUGH THE
LEXINGTON AREA BETWEEN 03-09Z TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY DYING OUT BY
SUNRISE.  FOR THIS FORECAST WE PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS IN TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF REGION.  NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT SOME WILL AND
THOSE WHO GET IT...COULD GET A NICE AMOUNT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
RATHER MILD BUT TYPICAL FOR SUMMER.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THEIR
00Z COUNTERPARTS. BAGGY H5 TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS MO.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US...ALONG
WITH SFC BOUNDARY TO PROMOTE SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

-MJ

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

SUN NGT THRU TUE NGT...

STILL A CHC OF STORMS THRU MON...AFTERWARD...DRY...HOT AND HUMID.

SOUTHWARD SAGGING/DETACHED SHRTWV TROF AT THE START OF THIS PD...IN
THE SEMO/SRN IL VCNTY. THIS FCST POSITION FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. TROF IS STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN/RETROGRADE INTO MON AS
UPR LEVEL HGTS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SE U.S.. THIS SHUD
LIMIT CNVCTN BY MONDAY NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE PD...TIL THEN...
...HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPR LVL FEATURE COMBINED WITH
SLOW MOVG NEWD MOVG BNDRY WILL PROVIDE WEAK FORCING MECHS IN AN
UNSTABLE AMS TO EXTEND CHC POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUN NGT AND
MON.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE CONTS INTO TUE WITH TROF REMNANTS STILL
RETROGRADING TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED ACRS THE
LOWER OH/TN VLYS. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND COMBO OF LOWER TO MID
90 MAX TEMPS AND MID/UPR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...WELL SEE QUITE
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

DK

WED THRU SAT...

A CHANGE OF AMS WILL OCCUR IN THIS PD (EARLY FRI WITH FROPA) WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUID
INDICATES HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING THU...CONTG THRU SAT...WITH
ESTABLISHMENT OF LNWV RIDGE ACR THE ROCKES/PLAINS AND LNWV TROF OVER
THE ERN OH VLY/NEW ENGLAND. WITH STRENGTHENING NW FLO...FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU OUR FA...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRES FCST TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY BY SAT.

FOR WED...THU AND FRI...WILL CONT CHC POPS FOR SCT TSTMS...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WED AS RIDGE WEAKENS...HOWEVER FORCING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHUD BE MORE FOCUSED...ESPECIALLY LATE THU AS CANADIAN
CDFNT APPROACHES OUR FA. WILL GO WITH HIEST POPS (40) AT THAT
POINT...LEANING TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN ALSO SHOWS A
PREFNTL MAX OF QPF THU AFTN/EVE. THE ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT THAN THE OPS GFS AND TRENDED THAT
WAY...KEEPING CHC POPS IN THE FCST THRU FRI...THIS CLOSE TO HPC
NUMBERS.

WILL CONT TO FAVOR HIGHER MAX TEMPS THRU THE PD...CLOSE TO HPC...
TIL SOIL MOISTURE MOVES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

DK

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SMALL BATCH OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING THROUGH THE KSDF AREA.  WILL
CARRY TSRA IN THE TAF THROUGH 19Z.  OTHERWISE VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  CONVECTION IS FCST TO END WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THEN AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THIS WILL BE THE BWG TERM WITH VSBYS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN 09-13Z SUN.

-MJ

&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
449 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-240830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
449 PM EDT (349 PM CDT) SAT JUN 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
COOL FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THOSE
STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD LATE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S
THUNDERSTORMS.

MJ/DK/13

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