Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA/IL AND TOWARDS OUR REGION.  COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S HAS RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...DECENT BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS...ALTHOUGH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINI SUPERCELLULAR STORMS.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  BULK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KY.  STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LESS DOWN THERE.  FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVE WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING AND DEPARTURE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH COLUMN RH DRYING OUT
NICELY. SO PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RUC13 AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SO WILL ALSO ADD THAT TO THE
ZONES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH READINGS OF 53
TO 58 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  H5 LOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP FORCE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO.  SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL INCLUDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.  A GRADIENT
OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 80-81 ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS WITH 84 TO 86 DEGREES EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KY.

-JARVIS

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A STRONG WARM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A STRONG WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT HIGH READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S REGION WIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. TRWS ARE EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO END
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME WE HAVE MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INSTEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ALONG
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LINE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...THE NEW CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAT THIS IS NOW EXPECTED
TO BE A DRY PERIOD WITH NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
READINGS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD ON NEXT TUESDAY...MOIST AIR WILL RETURN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TRW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. --21

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SCT STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF LOUISVILLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING S/W.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WILL SLIDE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOST IMPACTED AREAS WILL BE THE KLEX AND KSDF TERMINALS.  ISO-SCT
CONVECTION IS ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND MAY
AFFECT THE KBWG TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE S/W AND LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION.  IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT SEE
RAINFALL.  HIGHEST PROBS OF THIS OCCURING APPEAR TO BE AT KLEX AND
KBWG.

-MJ

&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-060830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
UNTIL 900 PM EDT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND EXIT THE
REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

MJ/AB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
458 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               38.04N 84.46W
06/05/2007  M1.75 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
504 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               38.04N 84.46W
06/05/2007  M1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 MILE SOUTH OF AIRPORT

&&

LD

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