Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Elko, NV

000 
WWUS55 KLKN 302216
SVSLKN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
315 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

NVC007-302230-
/O.CON.KLKN.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-070830T2230Z/
ELKO NV-
315 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PDT
FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...

AT 313 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
NORTH OF RYNDON TO DEETH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DEETH BY 320 PM PDT...

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 62 MPH WERE REPORTED IN ELKO WITH THIS STORM. 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4136 11564 4116 11494 4083 11551 4097 11611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 232DEG 40KT 4112 11559 4102 11521

$$

JMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST. &&

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A 55-60KT H3 JET PASSING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGS INSTABILITY TO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET BEING CENTERED OVER THE SE CORNER OF
ELKO COUNTY AT 06Z THIS EVENING...AND A STRONG VORT MAX POSITIONED
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AT THE SAME TIME...MAY HELP KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING BEYOND SUNSET OVER EASTERN NEVADA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF NEVADA
FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AS LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ROOD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THEN DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
H5 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SWRN CONUS UNTIL TUES BUT WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK SWRLY WINDS ALOFT...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA INTO SAT EVENING AND RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PUSHES TO EAST ...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
MAINLY ACROSS NE AND EAST CNTRL NV ON SUN-MON AFTERNOONS AND THEN
ERN WHITE PINE COUNTY ON TUES AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN 5-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...BY TUES MODELS INDICATE H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE W-NW AND BRING DRIER...COOLER AIR
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS SHOWS SIGNS OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON PUSHING INTO
NWRN NV ON TUES AM AND THEN ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL NV ON WED.
ATTM CAN EXPECT SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH OUR AREA DRY WITH SOME BREEZY
W-NWRLY WINDS. WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
UPCOMING RUNS CLOSELY FOR RESOLUTION. HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEXT WED AND
THURS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW 80S
AND LOW 40S. AWG &&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERED ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 10 PM THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL THREE TWEB ROUTES. AWG &&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER
THIS EVENING...REFORMING ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NEVADA FRIDAY...FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SATURDAY...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
LOWER. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...AND HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. FOR TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY AND STABLE WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
ROOD &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.