Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
249 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEVADA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VORT LOBE
WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS NRN NV TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS CNTRL NV CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE
BEHIND VORT LOBE. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO BUILD AND EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
EVENING. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MODELS SHOW VORT LOBE NOT CLEARING THAT AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY BUT FCST SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. ON FRIDAY ENOUGH
DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT
TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF TSTMS. HOWEVER ACROSS THE EAST ANOTHER SHOT
OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE THREAT OF TSTMS
IN THE FORECAST. CEC

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. EXPECTING LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SOME MOISTURE CAUGHT BELOW THE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING CAN LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...WHILE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT...ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP OF THE NORTHWESTERN US COAST
BY MID WEEK. GFS TRIES TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND THE EC
HANGS IT IT UP ON THE COAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS SOME COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
MID 80S AGAIN. HAVE NOT BITTEN OFF ON THIS QUITE YET ALTHOUGH HAVE
REFLECTED A LITTLE IN THE TEMPS TO HINT THERE MAY BE A CHANGE.
IPPI
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF NEVADA HAS SOMEWHAT HINDERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN HIGH BASED...OVER 12K FEET
AGL AND HAS NOT HINDERED VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR AND
UNDER STORMS THAT ARE OCCURRING WHERE THE BASES MAY DROP TO AROUND 4K
FEET AGL. GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND MAY
OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM ITSELF. IPPI&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE DRY ACROSS NRN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER MOVED BACK THE ENDING TIME TO 8 PM AS MOST
STORMS WILL BE WET AFTER THAT TIME. VORT LOBE WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS
NRN NV TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS CNTRL NV CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE BEHIND VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
WITH DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BUILD AND EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING. KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS SHOW VORT LOBE
NOT CLEARING THAT AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE ON THURSDAY BUT FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE DRY ACROSS CNTRL NV. ON FRIDAY
ENOUGH DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF TSTMS. HOWEVER ACROSS THE EAST ANOTHER
SHOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SO ANY TSTMS WILL BE DRY. CEC
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 452 FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.