Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...
TODAYS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF BERMUDA RIDGE
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH ISOLATED TO MARGINALLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE WITH SHORT DURATIONS. THE BETTER CONCENTRATION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE MOBILE RIVER VALLEY AND MOBILE BAY...ADVANCING TOWARD
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE
PEARL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE LOSING STEAM AT SUNSET. OTHERWISE NEAR
GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE OF TODAYS CONDITIONS. 24

.LONG TERM...

MODELS SHOW A UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES BUT STALLING BEFORE GETTING TO THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY FOCUS THE MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEKEND
THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE NEAR SEASONAL
POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TSRA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL LIKELY SEND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
STRENGTH OF DEVEOPING TSRA ACROSS AREAS FROM KPQL TO KGPT.
ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE AREA HAS ONLY SEEN ISOLATED COVERAGE
SHRA/TSRA...SO THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LA
AIRPORTS. LOOKING TO TOMORROW...SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER ABOUT 30
PERCENT OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. 22

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL...WEEKEND BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD EXCEPT
DURING ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  70  91 /  20  30  20  30
BTR  72  91  71  92 /  10  30  20  30
MSY  76  91  75  91 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

24/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1113 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-280500-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1113 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN AN HOUR. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTOMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

24

MSZ082-272145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MOVING INTO THE
AREA...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LUCEDALE TO DOWNTOWN MOBILE TO MOSS
POINT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MOSS POINT AND WADE AT 445 PM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.