Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1032 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

.UPDATE...

THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT OF FLOODING HEAVY
RAINS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAS DIMINISHED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THE MCS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. ONE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
SCATTERED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
NOON TODAY ACROSS THAT AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE LAKE
WHERE HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE LOWERED FOR THE REMAINING OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WORDING WILL BE MENTIONED IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH ONLY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS WHILE BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AS A WEAK VORT MAX MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND AFFECTS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND PLAN TO ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  67  86  66 /  50  20  30  10
BTR  83  68  87  68 /  50  20  30  10
MSY  83  71  87  71 /  50  20  30  10
GPT  83  70  84  69 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-051200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
ISOLATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THAT
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION TODAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUE MONITORING THE WEATHER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

LAZ060>064-070-041900-
LOWER ST BERNARD-ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-
1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE METRO NEW
ORLEANS AREA THROUGH 200 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING OVER THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...INCLUDING METAIRIE...
CHALMETTE...KENNER AND BELLE CHASE. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE METRO
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS. DO NOT STAND
BY WINDOWS. UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER THREAT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

LAZ040-041900-
ST TAMMANY-
1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ST TAMMANY PARISH...

AT 1229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO ST TAMMANY PARISH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH...AND
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND MANDEVILLE...LACOMBE...AND SLIDELL
THROUGH 2 PM.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
GUSTING TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS. DO NOT STAND
BY WINDOWS. UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER THREAT.

LAZ049-050-057-058-041900-
ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE RIVER PARISHES...

AT 1229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITEHALL IN LIVINGSTON PARISH.  THIS
THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...AND
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND SORRENTO...LUTCHER...LAPLACE...AND
WHITEHALL THROUGH THROUGH 2 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS. DO NOT STAND
BY WINDOWS. UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER THREAT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW PORT ALLEN         30.50N 91.27W
05/04/2007                   WEST BATON ROUGE   LA   PUBLIC

            TELEPHONE POLLS KNOCKED DOWN THIS MORNING

&&

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

LAZ058>064-067>070-041930-
LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-
ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-
102 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER METRO NEW ORLEANS THROUGH 230 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA INCLUDING...NEW
ORLEANS...METAIRIE...CHALMETTE...KENNER AND BELLE CHASE.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE METRO AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS. DO NOT STAND
BY WINDOWS. UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER THREAT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

LAZ059-065>070-042100-
LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-
LOWER TERREBONNE-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER TERREBONNE-
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL PARISHES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PARISH SOUTH OF METRO NEW
AREA...FROM SOUTH LAFOURCHE PARISH...ACROSS LOWER JEFFERSON...
TO LOWER PLAQUEMINE PARISH. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS. DO NOT STAND
BY WINDOWS. UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER THREAT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
224 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             3 NNW RESERVE           30.12N 90.58W
05/04/2007  E0.25 INCH       ST. JOHN THE BAPTI LA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            10 MINUTES OF HAIL REPORTED AT THE ST JOHN THE BAPTIST
            AIRPORT

&&

25