Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Lake Charles, LA

000 
WWUS54 KLCH 082057
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

TXC457-082105-
/O.EXP.KLCH.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070708T2100Z/
TYLER TX-
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN TYLER COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 400 PM CDT...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3083 9459 3070 9445 3085 9421 3102 9439

$$

20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
203 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...LCH RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INLAND AREA...BECOMING ISOLATED OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. HAVE SEEN ONE STORM PULSE TO BORDER-LINE SEVERE.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING AT 2 PLUS INCHES. CAPES IN RAIN-FREE AREAS NEAR 3000
J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE
EMANATING FROM MAIN OKLAHOMA MID/UPPER LOW. STORMS ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE AXIS OF
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS IN PLACE.

WILL BE MAKING FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT GRID/ZONE PACKAGE. MODELS
CONTINUE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN SOME SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO TUESDAY. OKLAHOMA LOW PROGGED
TO EXIT EAST NORTHEAST AND OPEN...LEAVING A SHEAR AXIS OVER EAST
TEXAS. SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WITH DRYING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PUNCHING INTO FORECAST AREA. AREA SHOULD THEN REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WITH MINIMAL MAINLY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

DID NOTE GFS TRYING TO SWING A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS WEST CONUS RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND DEEPENING
EASTERN TROF. WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING THAT POSSIBLE SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  90  76  90 /  30  40  20  30
KBPT  75  90  76  90 /  30  40  20  30
KAEX  72  91  73  91 /  30  40  20  30
KLFT  73  91  75  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

MARCOTTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-091100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
557 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE ON TAP AGAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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